The US-China climate deal was a bright spot in an otherwise thorny relationship. Should it be mended?

CNN
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One of the biggest surprises at last year’s UN climate summit was the handshake.

US climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua did so at COP26 in Glasgow when they announce a commitment cooperation on the climate crisis. Countries have pledged to work together to reduce emissions from fossil fuels, and China has pledged to come up with a plan to cut the amount of methane – a powerful planet-warming gas – that it delivered this week.

The terms of the deal aren’t too specific, and it doesn’t come with many measurable action points. But the deal is still widely welcomed as a step in the right direction in an uneasy geopolitical relationship.

It doesn’t last long.

The newly started cooperation suddenly broke down in August when China Climate talks are suspended with the US – one of a number of measures taken in response to US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan.

The question now is whether COP27 in Egypt can provide the momentum needed to mend their relationship with climate change. At an event hosted by the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, Kerry said he spoke with Xie this week, although they have not had a formal meeting.

“We need to talk to each other because we are the two largest economies in the world and we are the two biggest emitters in the world,” Kerry said at the event. “And we have a common interest in working together to try to reduce emissions and be leaders at this level. So the answer is that I have spoken publicly to China many times, and President Biden has told them that we are ready for climate recovery and that hopefully we will be able to. ”

Before the summit, Kerry told reporters that the final decision to resume formal talks rests with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Biden and Mr. Xi are expected to meet in G20 Summit in Indonesia.

“That will come from one person, and until then we are in limbo,” Kerry said of Xi.

There are many reasons, as Kerry notes, that the two countries should be in sync on the climate crisis. Not only are they historically most blamed for climate change, their actions also have a significant impact on the rest of the world, who expect the US and China to take the lead. on this issue.

However, now that the cooperation seems to be at an impasse, some experts are considering whether it is necessary; Can competition lead to faster change?

Going into Egypt, another big thing from last year – the US really passed giant climate law.

Democratic Party ‘ Inflation Reduction Act contains $370 billion in clean energy and climate funding and includes credit taxes for electric vehicles and batteries written in a way that competes with China.

However, China has a head start in the clean energy race and has spent the past decade leading in wind and solar power. Last year, China installed 80% of the world’s new offshore wind capacity, causing the rest of the world to shrink. Global Wind Energy Council. It is also getting ahead on trams and buses; About a quarter of all new passenger cars registered in China are electric.

Kelly Sims Gallagher, a professor of energy and environmental policy at Tufts University’s Fletcher School, said the US still had a lot of work to do, but it was “back in the race”.

“I believe a healthy competition between the two countries will benefit everyone,” she said. “This new money will be a really important global driver into clean energy technology and innovation, and it has the potential to drive much more (development) in China. But in many respects, China currently has the leading edge; The United States has a lot of work to do.”

In China, the US climate bill is being viewed as a “competitive gesture” and with some skepticism that the US can move forward as quickly as it wants in the clean energy transition, according to Li Shuo, a people in Beijing. global policy advisor to the East Asia Greenpeace Organization.

“Part of this sentiment is sour grapes, but I think part of it is based on sober analysis – if you as a country manage to ramp up renewables from zero to giant in 10 years, you will know the secret to success better. than anyone else,” said Shuo.

Chinese officials “don’t believe the US is capable of replicating it,” Shuo said. “Only America can prove itself and the stakes – our climate future – are high.”

The US and China – due to the sheer scale of their planet-warming emissions, money and political power – have historically been power players at international climate summits. This year is no different, all eyes are on the two countries and whether they will continue to cooperate.

Xie announced Tuesday at COP27 that his country has developed a national strategy to reduce methane emissions, fulfilling a promise made at last year’s summit when it pledged to work with the United States.

Speaking at a conference event in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, Xie said China’s methane strategy will focus on three areas: methane reduction from the energy sector, agriculture and waste management sectors.

In the energy sector, however, Xie only mentioned reducing emissions from oil and gas – and did not refer to China’s coal sector, which generates most of the country’s methane along with CO2 emissions. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, China produces the most methane emissions from coal mines in the world.

Xie’s announcement is the latest proof of the cooperation between the world the two biggest generators problem – even more so because of the peer pressure impact it can have on other countries.

“We have seen the place [US-China cooperation] is producing good results; Nate Hultman, director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability and a former Kerry official. “In that context, the suspension of the negotiations is an obstacle.”

According to Sims Gallagher, the end of the US-China deal causes information gaps as lines of communication go down – something that can cause suspicion, according to Sims Gallagher.

“I’m sure China knows we’ve passed the (Inflation Reduction Act),” said Sims Gallagher. “At a high level, that was understood. But on a granular level, it’s much harder to understand what’s going on and why it’s happening.”

A senior administration official admitted they thought something was lost as a result of the suspended talks, killing the momentum stemming from a joint US-Chinese statement in Glasgow last year. That official said whether cooperation can continue this year remains an open question.

The resumption of negotiations with the United States is in the best interests of China and the world, because it elevates China’s stature, said Joanna Lewis, an associate professor of energy and the environment at Georgetown University. heading into a major international summit – allowing a country often chosen as a climate villain some positive spin.

“When China’s top negotiator and America’s top negotiator come together to stand up to the world, they call China the leader and take them to a new level of leadership on climate,” Lewis said. ‘ said Lewis. “Especially in an international negotiation where they are not always seen as playing a leading role.”