Tropical Storm Bret formed on Monday, becoming the second named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
Bret formed nearly 1,300 miles east of the southern Windward Islands and is moving west at 21 mph toward the Caribbean Sea.
The National Hurricane Center said the storm is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane as it moves over the Lesser Antilles on Thursday and Friday. Although “it is too early to determine the location and severity of where these hazards may be,” it said, people in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should keep a close watch. Stay up-to-date and have a hurricane plan in place.
The Hurricane Center estimated the storm to have maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Tropical storms with sustained winds of 39 mph are named. When winds reach 74 mph, a hurricane becomes a hurricane, and at 111 mph it becomes a hurricane.
Bret is actually the third tropical cyclone to reach tropical storm intensity this year. National Hurricane Center announced in May that it reassessed a hurricane that formed off the northeastern United States in mid-January and determined that it was a subtropical storm, making it the Atlantic’s first hurricane of the year. However, the storm was not named retroactively, leaving Arlene, formed in the Gulf of Mexico on June 2First named storm in the Atlantic basin this year.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs through November 30.
At the end of May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predict that there will be 12 to 17 named storms this year, an “almost normal” amount. There were 14 named storms last year, after two extremely busy Atlantic hurricane seasons in which forecasters ran out of names and had to resort to backup lists. (ONE A record of 30 named storms takes place in 2020.)
However, NOAA has not expressed much certainty in its forecast this year, saying there is a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and Another 30% chance to happen below – normal season.
There are indications of above-average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, which could cause storms and an above-normal West African monsoon potential. The monsoon season produces hurricane activity that can lead to some stronger and longer-lasting Atlantic hurricanes.
But this year also features El Nino, arrived earlier this month. Climate disruption can have wide-ranging effects on weather around the world, including reducing the number of Atlantic hurricanes.
“It’s quite rare for both of these things to happen at the same time,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead storm forecaster for the Center for Climate Prediction at NOAA.
In the Atlantic, El Niño increases wind shear, or the change in wind speed and direction from the ocean or land surface, into the atmosphere. Hurricanes need a quiet environment to form, and increased wind shear instability makes those conditions less likely. (El Niño has the opposite effect in the Pacific, reducing wind shear.) Even in average or below average years, there is a chance that a strong storm will make landfall.
As global warming worsens, that chance increases. There is a firm consensus among scientists that The storm is getting stronger because of climate change. While there may not be more named storms overall, the likelihood of major hurricanes is increasing.
Climate change is also affecting how much rain storms can produce. In a warming world, the air can hold more moisture, which means that a named storm can hold and produce more rain, such as Hurricane Harvey happened in Texas in 2017, when some areas received more than 40 inches of rain in less than 48 hours.
The researchers also found that storms have slowed down, covering areas for longer in the past few decades.
As a storm slows down over water, the amount of moisture the storm can absorb increases. As the storm slows over land, the amount of rain falling on a location increases; in 2019 for example, Hurricane Dorian slowed as it crawled over the northwestern Bahamas, resulting in a total of 22.84 inches of rain in Hope Town during the storm.
Other potential impacts of climate change include higher tides, rapid enhancement and wider reach of tropical systems.
Mayor of OrlandoAnd Livia Albeck-Ripka contribution report.
