WASHINGTON – U.S. officials are anxious to see French presidential electionperceived that the outcome of Sunday’s vote could upset President Biden’s relationship with Europe and expose dangerous cracks in Western democracy.
President Emmanuel Macron of France is an important partner as Mr. Biden has rebuilt ties with Europe, promoted democracy and built a coalition to deal with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But Mr. Macron is in close competition with Marine Le Pena challenger far to the right.
Ms. Le Pen is a populist agitator who, in the style of former President Donald J. Trump, considers the “globalists” of the European Union, criticizes NATO and considers President Vladimir Putin. Russia as an ally.
Her victory could complicate Mr. Biden’s efforts to isolate Russia and aid Ukraine. But the realistic prospect of a nationalist France is also a reminder that the recent period of US-European solidarity on political and security issues like Russia and democracy can very fragile. Poland and Hungary, both NATO members, have taken authoritarian turns. And Germany’s surprisingly strong response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was draw domestic criticism.
“Having a right-wing government come to power in France would be a political seismic,” said Charles A. Kupchan, a professor at Georgetown, Europe director of the Obama-era National Security Council. “It would send an unsettling signal about the overall political state of the Western world.”
“This is a moment of quite remarkable European unity and determination,” he added. But the election of Le Pen will certainly raise profound questions about the European project.”
Mr. Macron was unable to command more than a small amount of support against some of his opponents First round of voting on April 10. Ms Le Pen, who finished second, is his opponent in Sunday’s election. Polls give Mr Macron a clear lead, but analysts say Le Pen’s win is entirely justified.
A hardline immigration leader and longtime French populist right wing, Ms Le Pen has campaigned mainly on domestic issues, including the rising cost of living. But her views on foreign policy have unsettled American officials. Last week, she renewed commitment to shrinking France’s leadership role in NATO and pursue “strategic cooperation” with Russia after the war with Ukraine ended. Le Pen also expressed concern that bringing weapons to Ukraine risks drawing other countries into the war.
In one debate On Wednesday, Mr Macron reminded voters that Ms Le Pen’s party had borrowed a sum of money from a Russian bank. “You depend on Mr. Putin,” he told her.
Ms Le Pen insists she is “a completely free woman” and said she sought foreign currency cash after French banks refused to lend her. She also sought to deny accusations that she sympathized with Russia’s war aims, declaring “absolute solidarity” with the Ukrainian people.
Le Pen has also pledged to cut the influence of the European Union, which the Biden administration sees as a key counterweight to Russia and China.
A senior US official noted that France has a recent history of right-wing candidates scaring the political establishment prior to defeat. Such was the case five years ago, when Mr. Macron defeated Ms. Le Pen in a comeback.
However, recent elections in the West have tended to be tumultuous, and analysts have warned of complacency in Washington, especially for the United States.
One sign that the Biden administration appreciates their partnership with Mr Macron is the sense of miniscule crisis after France withdraws ambassador in Washington in September after revealing a New initiative between US and UK supply Australia with nuclear submarines.
Mr Macron’s government has blamed the Biden administration for the loss of a lucrative submarine contract it had with Australia and was particularly angry when it learned of the deal through a media leak. the media. Biden officials expressed deep support for France in a series of meetings and phone calls, and Mr. Biden called the situation clumsy. France is an “extremely, extremely valuable” partner of the United States, he said.
If Le Pen wins, Biden’s national security team will be forced to reassess that relationship.
Things to know about the French presidential election
The most pressing question will be the status of economic sanctions against Russia, in which the European Union plays an important role. During Wednesday’s debate, Le Pen said she supports sanctions against Russia’s financial system and oligarchs but opposes bans on Russian oil and gas imports, and allows that the French people should not suffer.
Martin Quencez, deputy director of the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund, said: “I did not imagine Marine Le Pen would meet Vladimir Putin two weeks after his election and talk about re-establishing a great relationship.
“Instead, it will be like Le Pen, as president, making it difficult for the EU and the US to agree on a new posture – a new package of sanctions, and to agree within NATO on what we need to do about it.” with the eastern flank,” he added.
For Team Biden, the defeat of Le Pen’s victory will go far beyond policies towards Russia and deal a blow to the project of strengthening democracy against authoritarianism around the world, said Daniel Baer, Acting director of the Europe program at the Carnegie Endowment for International said Tranquility.
“Biden sees this moment as a contest between democracy and autocracy,” he said. “In the long run, it is certain that having one of the world’s most revered, advanced democracies elect an unethical person would be a setback to the great cause of democracy.”
Kupchan noted that Europe’s strong response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused simmering concerns in Washington about autocracy in countries like Poland and Hungary, which have winged prime ministers possess, Viktor Orban, comfortably re-elected last month.
“Everything we worried about before February 24,” the date of the Russian invasion, “is still lurking under the surface,” Mr. Kupchan said. “And if Le Pen wins, that means illiberalism – the politics of racism, of protectionism, will be exposed.”
He added: “In a way, all the trials and tribulations in the country are in the form of suspended animation. But they are still with us. And the French election has shone a light on that.”
