US officials and military analysts warn that US-made cluster bombs may not immediately help Ukraine in its counterattack against Russian defenses as hundreds of thousands of weapons arrive. country from US military depots in Europe, according to Pentagon officials.
Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal Institute of Unified Services in London, who has made several trips to Ukraine, said: “The scale of the effect will be modest. “It would make Ukrainian artillery a little more dangerous. The real impact will be felt at the end of the year when Ukraine has significantly more ammunition than otherwise.”
Colin H. Kahl, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, admitted last week that “there is no possibility of a silver bullet”, but said cluster munitions would allow Ukraine to “sustain an artillery war for the foreseeable future.”
President Biden has been grappling with a decision for months. Cluster bombs, outlawed by many of America’s closest allies, scatter small bombs across the battlefield that can cause severe injury even decades after the war ends when civilians pick up bombs do not explode.
Russia used this weapon in Ukraine for most of the war. The Ukrainians also used them, and President Volodymyr Zelensky urged more to push back the Russians digging trenches and prevent his country’s counterattack.
Mr. Biden determined last week that disarming Ukraine as it faces a severe ammunition shortage would render the country defenseless against Russia. He said it was a temporary move to contain Ukraine until the production of conventional artillery shells could be ramped up.
This decision gives the Ukrainian military more time to probe the weaknesses of Russia’s defenses along three main lines of attack – bombarding Russian artillery against their advancing force – and then poking fun at them. penetrate dense minefields, tank traps and other barriers. It also allows the Ukrainian Army to do more than they know best – fire thousands of shells a day to take down Russian defenders.
“It looks like they’re getting back to the artillery barrage,” said Amael Kotlarski, weapons group manager at Janes, a defense intelligence firm.
But that artillery-focused approach raises the question of whether Ukraine has lost confidence in the combined arms tactic – the synchronized attacks of infantry, armored and artillery forces – those nine new brigades have learned from other American and Western advisers in recent months. Western officials heralded this approach to be more effective than the costly strategy of wearing down Russian forces by draining and depleting their ammunition stockpiles.
Senior US officials have privately expressed frustration in recent weeks that some Ukrainian commanders, angered by the slow pace of the initial offensive and fear rising casualties within their ranks, reverted to old habits – decades of Soviet-style training in artillery positions – instead of sticking to Western tactics and exerting greater pressure to break through the ranks. Russian defense.
When asked about US criticism, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukraine defense minister who advises the government, said in an email: “Why don’t they come and do it themselves?”
Biden administration officials are hoping nine brigades, about 36,000 troops, will show that the American way of war – using mixed weapons, synchronized tactics, and regiments with senior soldiers is awarded authority – superior to the rigid centralized command structure that is the Russian approach.
“It pushes them out of their comfort zone a little bit because it allows them to use firepower and maneuver in a way that’s more familiar to NATO forces than to those with Soviet heritage,” said Kahl. and the Soviet doctrine behind them. . “That requires them to fight in different ways.”
With a huge supply of new artillery shells now available to the Ukrainians, the pressure to fight like Western armies has eased. But Mr. Kahl and other top US policymakers and senior uniformed officers said it was too early to assess the counter-attack and how the Ukrainians would wage the war.
“Slower than we expected, but the Ukrainians have a lot of fighting strength left,” said Kahl, noting that most of the nine Western-trained brigades have not yet committed to the war and are being attacked. detention. backup when the Ukrainian army could spill through the holes through the Russian defenses.
“The real test will be when they identify weaknesses or create weaknesses and create vulnerabilities, how quickly they can exploit that with the combat power they have in reserve and the Russians. how quickly it will be able to react.” Mr. Kahl said.
US and Ukrainian military officials declined to say exactly how Ukraine would use cluster bombs, which are US-made 155 mm M864 shells that can be fired from howitzers and release 72 grenades. small once on target.
“I don’t think there’s going to be that much of an immediate impact,” said Rob Lee, a Russian military expert at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies in Philadelphia and a former US Marine officer.
Mr. Lee said Ukraine will likely try to use cluster bombs near areas of the 600-mile front line where it is less likely to send troops to avoid endangering its forces.
Kahl said the United States would work with Ukraine to reduce the risks associated with weapons. Specifically, he added, the Ukrainian government has said it will not use the munitions in densely populated urban areas and that the use of the munitions will make demining efforts easier after the war. conflict.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said: “Cluster munitions will only be used in areas where Russian troops are concentrated.” a Twitter message last week. “They will be used to penetrate enemy defenses with minimal risk to the lives of our soldiers. Saving the lives of our troops, even during extremely difficult offensive operations, remains our top priority.”
Mark F. Cancian, a former White House weapons strategist who is now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said: “Cluster munitions will not only provide enough ammunition to keep going. high-level fire but also provides more effective ammunition against regional targets such as infantry, artillery and convoys of trucks.
The ammunition arrived at a time when the Ukrainian army was slowly moving forward.
General Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last month that Ukraine was “progressing steadily, deliberately passing through very difficult minefields” at distances of 500 to 2,000 yards a day. . General Milley said: “Slow progress is very intentional. “That is happening.”
He added that the fact that the long-awaited recapture of occupied territory is not progressing as quickly as many experts have predicted “doesn’t surprise me at all.”
“It’s going to be very long, and it’s going to be very, very bloody, and no one should be under any illusions about any of that,” General Milley said. “Ultimately, Ukrainian soldiers are attacking through minefields and in trenches, and this is really a fight for their lives. So yeah, sure, it’s a bit slow, but that’s part of the essence of war.”
