KYIV, Ukraine – It was pure performance art, intended to upset the Kremlin: a mock parade organized by Ukraine with dozens of captured Russian tanks on Kyiv’s central avenue.
More fundamentally, Ukraine has carried out attacks on the heart of Russian strongholds once considered untouchable, including an explosion at a base in Crimea that destroyed eight fighter jets.
And fearing their actions would go unnoticed, the Ukrainian government’s social media sites went into full swing after these and other episodes, posting a flurry of sarcasm mocking their opponents. surname.
“An unsuccessful attempt to launch a Russian tanker into space,” said a post accompanying the video, which showed a Russian tank exploding, its turret soaring into the sky. It was posted on the official Facebook page of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In many ways big and small, Ukraine’s leadership is attacking its adversary much more forcefully, fueled by deep anger toward Russia, newfound confidence after battlefield victories, the need demand mustering support at home and abroad, and a large dose of psychological warfare aimed at disabling the enemy.
In doing so, it is changing the age-old diplomatic maxim about the need to be cautious in dealings with the Kremlin.
“There is an axiomatic policy – don’t poke the bear – that has been around for decades,” said Cliff Kupchan, president of Eurasia Group, a Washington-based political risk assessment firm. “Ukrainians are changing that policy. And the bear has proven to be very lovable. “
“The question is, how much is too much, and is it too much?” Mr. Kupchan said. “Obviously that’s not the question we want answered.”
If Ukraine’s mockery seems uniquely sophisticated, it reflects the refined public sensibility of the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comedian, and his top advisers. , many have joined the government after careers in news media, show business, and comedy.
Russia has ravaged much of eastern and southern Ukraine – razing cities, killing civilians, committing atrocities. Russia can still cause further damage – to infrastructure like the power grid, for example – and its proxies in eastern Ukraine have signaled their intention to conduct prisoners of war trials. Ukraine, can lead to the death penalty.
However, Ukrainians seem to believe that Moscow has done so much damage that their options for further sanctions are limited.
“Everything that could have happened has happened,” said Serhiy Leshchenko, an adviser to the president’s chief of staff.
Ukraine, for example, has crossed Russia’s red line in Crimea; The Kremlin has repeatedly warned that attacks on the peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 would be seen as an attack on Russian territory. But Ukrainian attacks there have so far been only a basic response to Russian long-range fire.
One factor, Leshchenko said, is that Russia has been stretched to the limit of its military capabilities, limiting its ability to retaliate.
Certainly, the benefits of poking fun at Russian President Putin are limited. It does not bring significant benefits to Ukraine on the battlefield, where Russia possesses superior numbers and weapons. And it has not undermined Moscow’s steadfast determination to advance a war of attrition, which Mr signal again on Thursday announced that Russia would drastically increase the size of its armed forces.
But Ukraine’s approach seems to serve several goals. It was, in part, calculated to incentivize Western military donors, who carefully calibrated donations to avoid provoking Russia to escalation.
Teasing the enemy also provided a pleasurable act of defiance, intended to strengthen national unity and strengthen the morale of Ukrainians haunted by six months of war.
Ukrainian troops attacked targets inside Russia just over a month after the invasion. The attack, a nighttime helicopter attack on a fuel depot near the city of Belgorod, became the first air strike on Russia since World War II. It was a brazen act and Russia did not retaliate in any particular way.
The Ukrainian government has not officially acknowledged the attacks inside Russia, maintaining an opaque policy on the matter. But it used the Belgorod attack to tune its opponents, saying Russians shouldn’t smoke near a fuel site.
More intense attacks on targets in Russia near the border with Ukraine and on the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula began last month. It is part of a strategic shift as Ukraine focuses on targeting Russia’s logistics networks deep behind the battlefield, rather than trying to achieve success in head-to-head skirmishes across the country. frontline.
Along with disrupting supply lines, the tactic also had a psychological element: From the Ukrainian point of view, it signaled to the Russians that the territory they considered protected was, in fact, protected. is not safe. And by bringing the war to Russia, they hope to increase political pressure on Putin’s government.
In the process, the Ukrainians brushed off threats from the Kremlin. After the air strikes on Crimea began, Dmitri A. Medvedev, former President of Russia and Vice-President of Russia’s Security Council, said of the airstrikes and mocked, “the end of the world will come immediately for us. all of them, very quickly and heavily” if these actions had not ceased.
The Ukrainian attacks continue. Two ammunition dumps near Belgorod exploded within days of Medvedev’s warning. The governor of the Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, blamed the summer heat and sunlight for warming the explosives and causing the fire.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense mocked that explanation.
The ministry wrote on Twitter: “A bullet explosion” caused by the heat “in the Belgorod region of Russia. “In a few months we will find out if Russian ammunition can explode because of the cold. The main causes of sudden explosion are: winter, spring, summer, autumn and smoking”.
Following a drone strike on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, Ukrainian officials have denied any official claims of responsibility. But Mr Zelensky subtly noted in his evening video speech that “one can literally feel in the air of Crimea that the occupation there is only temporary”.
From the very beginning of his term, Mr. Zelensky banned any provocative words aimed at Russia, in order to avoid unnecessarily raising tensions.
However, his group has turned towards fixing Russia’s vulnerability while calling for Western governments to have more and more lethal weapons.
The performance in central Kyiv last weekend was perhaps Ukraine’s most brazen and public mockery. Collected from battlefields in the east and south of the country, burned tanks and armored vehicles are placed on a wide road leading to Independence Square, the site of the pro-Western uprising in year 2014.
The display illuminates what Ukrainian officials say is Russia’s plan to hold a victory parade if it captures the capital early in the invasion – a plan that ended in a humiliating retreat.
Zelensky’s office declined to discuss internal considerations about the sunken tank parade, including any risk-benefit analysis. In written responses to questions, a senior adviser, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, responded with another aimed at the Russians.
“Now the world can see Russians wanting to march through this street to celebrate their victory,” he wrote. “They marched.”
As with war, mocking the enemy has been an element of many conflicts, including the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ukrainians have refined this art.
The Department of Defense recently posted a verified video of the High Mobility Missile Artillery System – the US-supplied precision missile system believed to be responsible for many of the attacks behind the US front lines. enemy – undulating grotesquely in the waves of the Black Sea on a slightly pink cushion. . In front of the truck-mounted rocket launcher is the Kerch Strait bridge, symbolizing Putin’s claim of sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula. The message is clear: The bridge is, or will soon be, in range.
The government is also not on top of some self-deprecating humor.
On Wednesday, Independence Day in Ukraine, the ministry mocked its own tendency to ridicule.
“We will not write anything pompous today,” the ministry said. “We will simply say one thing: This is a country that deserves to win. Happy Independence Day Ukraine! “
Oleksandr Chubko contribution report from Kyiv.
