LEI fell 4.2% in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023—a sharper rate of decline than its 3.8% decline in the previous six months.
The Conference Board’s leading economic index for the United States fell 0.7% in June to 106.1, after falling 0.6% in May. It fell 4.2% between December 2022 and June 2023—a higher rate than its 3.8% decline in the previous six months. The US economy is likely to shrink from the third quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, the group forecast.
The LEI provides an early indication of important turning points in the business cycle and the direction of the economy in the near term.
LEI’s annual growth rate remains negative, signaling a further slowdown in economic activity.
“US LEI fell again in June, fueled by more dismal consumer expectations, weaker new orders, increased initial jobless claims and reduced housing construction activity,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.
“The Leading Index has fallen for fifteen months—the longest consecutive decline since 2007-2008, in the run-up to the Great Recession. Taken together, the June data suggest that economic activity will continue to decelerate in the coming months,” she said.
She added: “We forecast that the US economy is likely to shrink from the third quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024. Rising prices, tighter monetary policy, less accessible credit and reduced government spending are likely to further depress economic growth.”
The country’s Conference Board Coincidence Economic Index (CEI) remained flat in June at 110, after rising 0.2 percent in May. The CEI provides an indication of the current state of the economy.
CEI is now up 0.6 percent in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023—down from the 1.1 percent growth it recorded in the previous six months.
The Conference Board’s lagging economic index (LAG) for the country was also unchanged in June, at 118.4, after improving 0.1% in May.
LAG grew slightly by 0.1 percent in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023, down significantly from 3 percent growth in the previous six months.
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