MUNICH — Nearly a year after the brutal and costly war in Ukraine, Western leaders pledge their unwavering support for Kyiv amid anxiety over whether their unity can last after what they say. The French president called it “a protracted conflict”.
As dozens of leaders convened in Germany, Ukraine’s president opened the annual Munich Security Conference with a warning of “fatigue” and stressed that speed is of the essence if his country wants to prevent a new Russian attack.
“We need to hurry,” Zelensky pleaded with attendees. He compared his country’s war against Russia to the biblical battle between David and Goliath, saying Western weapons would be the key to defeating the “Russian Goliath”.
That is why arms deliveries must be accelerated, he said. “The delay was always and remains a mistake,” he said.
President Emmanuel Macron of France and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany each delivered speeches pledging that the West would not lose patience, even as the debate intensified over the scale of the war effort, costs and damage. economic damage it causes around the world.
American and European officials have in recent months voiced their solidarity against Russia, which has defied many predictions, including in Moscow, of infighting and surrender. But the fight is expected to last at least another year, and that unity will be tested. Few expected an unexpected breakthrough from either side, and the cost of sustaining Ukraine’s war against a larger enemy is also expected to create new tensions between the allies.
Throughout the day, leaders did their best to dismiss any hint of impatience or disunity. Before his speech, Mr. Scholz told an interviewer, CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, that it was “really not a good idea” to “discuss the question of when, in what month, the war will end.”
“The really important decision that we should all make together is to say that we’re willing to do it for as long as it’s necessary and we’ll do our best,” he added.
Unlike Scholz, however, Mr. Macron has hinted at the prospect of a final negotiated solution to the war.
While pledging that the West is “ready for a protracted conflict” and saying it is not yet time to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, the French leader also used words like “dialogue” and “re-engagement” to describe a number of possibilities. interact with Moscow.
But once criticized for being too lenient with Moscow, Mr. Macron insisted there could be no negotiations until the Kremlin was pushed back.
“Now the question is how to fight back? How to help the Ukrainians do something that can force Russia back to the negotiating table on Ukrainian terms,” Macron said in English, answering questions after his speech in French. .
They joined a three-day meeting of foreign policy leaders, diplomats and elites with Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and several members of the United States Congress.
Amid the focus on Ukraine is a subplot surrounding the open question of whether Mr Blinken can meet China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, who will speak at the conference on Saturday. . Relations between Washington and Beijing are particularly strained after the US shot down a Chinese spy balloon over the US earlier this month.
During his video appearance, Zelensky was asked by the moderator, Christoph Heusgen, chairman of the Munich Security Conference, to answer Putin’s belief that “Russia has more lasting power than Ukraine” and the public international copper.
Zelensky replied that Putin argued with other countries that harsh Western-led sanctions against Russia were the root cause of global problems such as food and energy inflation, “to make them feel tired.”
US officials acknowledge disappointment that Russia’s message has resonated, especially in what they call the global south, where many developing countries feel little interest in the Russian conflict. -Ukraine. They note that it is Putin’s invasion, not sanctions, that exempt food products, that are the main cause of higher food costs around the world.
Mr. Putin met on Friday in Moscow with his closest international ally, President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus, the two posed and chatted in front of a group of reporters before speaking privately. Such displays of friendliness have helped revive concerns that Belarus could be involved in Russia’s war against Ukraine, but Western officials say they have seen no signs of such a change. So.
Mr. Scholz’s speech in Munich was notable in part for his aggressive call for more supplies to Kyiv. A few weeks earlier, he had come under intense pressure from his NATO allies over his reluctance to approve the supply of modern German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
Mr. Scholz finally agreed about tanks after the Biden administration provided him with political cover by agreeing to also send advanced American Abrams tanks to Kyiv. And in today’s speech, it is Mr. Scholz who is calling on others to send tanks to Ukraine.
“Everyone who can actually supply battle tanks of this type should do so,” Scholz said on Friday, adding that he and other top German officials would “advocacy strong for this” in Munich.
“We will do whatever we can to make this decision easier for our partners – for example by training Ukrainian soldiers in Germany or assisting them with supplies and logistics”. He did not name specific countries.
“The sooner Putin realizes that he cannot achieve his imperial goals, the greater the likelihood that the war will soon end with the withdrawal of the Russian occupying forces,” Scholz said.
That view echoes that of many Western officials and analysts, who say Putin is unlikely to enter peace talks in good faith until his military standing is undermined. significantly weak.
Thanks in part to weapons received from the West, Ukraine has defeated many of Putin’s key objectives so far, pushing his forces from the outskirts of Kiev to the north and Kharkiv to the northeast, from the city of Kherson in the north. south and from parts of the Donbas region to the east. Even so, officials and analysts say Mr Putin believes his country’s superior manpower and vast natural resources – along with what he sees as his inevitable loss of will the West – could lead him to victory, including the conquest of the entire Donbas.
But Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner group whose mercenary fighters are crucial to the Russian war effort, warned on Thursday that the Russians would take months to gain control of the city of Bakhmut in the Donbas – an indication of how the war could last. For months, the Bakhmut area has seen the heaviest fighting in Ukraine, with enormous losses on both sides, but the frontline there has progressed very slowly.
In recent weeks, Moscow has hastily dispatched tens of thousands of more troops, many of them inexperienced recruits, to the front lines in eastern Ukraine, as Putin’s forces seek to show their advance. walk before the anniversary of their invasion on February 24.
In Munich, one of the more pressing issues being discussed, though more privately than publicly, is how the war should end: Whether Ukraine’s full sovereignty over all of its territory , including Crimea, is it possible? If not, can there be negotiation? Is Mr. Putin even interested in negotiations?
Ivo Daalder, former US ambassador to NATO and president of NATO, said: “There is clearly consensus, which now includes France and Germany, that there is no prospect of progressing towards a serious negotiation unless and until Ukraine gains more territorial interests.” Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
In an interview on Friday with NBC News’ Andrea Mitchell, Harris said the US goal is to “do everything in our power to strengthen Ukraine’s position on the battlefield so that if and when With negotiations, Ukraine will be in the strongest position. in a negotiation.”
Saturday’s proceedings will feature remarks by Ms Harris and Mr Blinken, and by Mr. Wang, who will discuss Beijing’s foreign policy prospects. Attendees will listen carefully for any change in China’s largely unqualified support for Russian aggression. Chinese state media described his presence at the event as a sign of moderate Chinese influence in a forum that would otherwise be dominated by US interests .
With the battles looming in Ukraine, its allies have work to come up with ways to provide Kiev with the necessary supplies for the war ahead. Currently, they have supplied all sorts of different Western weapons systems to the Kiev war effort, most recently committing to providing battle tanks to Kiev.
Ukraine has lobbied vigorously to take Western military aid to the next level, begging for warplanes, something President Biden has so far refused, even though the French and British governments have refused. indicate that they are open to the idea. On Friday, several former US members of Congress, both Republicans and Democrats, urged Mr. Biden to send fighter jets to Ukraine.
Zelensky expressed gratitude for the allies’ support so far, but noted that he had sought support at the previous year’s conference, in the days before the Russian invasion.
“We want to hear, ‘Ukraine, we will be with you.’ Unfortunately, I only heard about it after Russian missiles started hitting Ukrainian territory,” he said.
