UNITED NATIONAL, 11/7 (IPS) – The writer is Director, United Nations Population Division, Ministry of Economy and Social Affairs. What do a young mother from south Lima, in Peru, and an 83-year-old pensioner in the suburbs of Stockholm, Sweden have in common?
Many things, perhaps, but here’s one of the most important: they are all members of the human population, whose size will surpass 8 billion by mid-November 2022. They are part of a single human being. a common desire to live in peace and in dignity, to have access to quality education, adequate living conditions and decent work, and to enjoy a long, healthy and fullness.
Although they are all part of the same humanity, the challenges and opportunities they face in their daily lives are very different.
In 2015, the member states of the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. At the core of this agenda are the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which form an ambitious call to action to end poverty, protect the planet, and improve the lives of today and future prospects of everyone everywhere.
Reducing social and economic inequalities is central to the 2030 Agenda. However, many inequalities persist and deepen, both within countries and regions. Today, the probability of living a long, healthy, and fulfilling life, as well as the challenges and opportunities that people face every day, vary widely around the world.
In countries where deaths outnumber births, population growth is small, if at all. In some cases, it has already started to decrease or will soon decrease. In some of these countries, immigration helps counteract the loss of population due to too high a death rate relative to births.
In other countries, migration is exacerbating population loss associated with low birth rates. As the proportion of the population over the age of 65 continues to increase, the shifting population puts additional financial pressure on social security, public pensions and health care systems.
In low-income countries, where economic growth can struggle to keep pace with population growth, reducing poverty and combating high levels of inequality is a major challenge. Lack of access to resources deprives individuals of opportunity and choice.
Inadequate access to family planning services leads to high birth rates, which often begin early in life, and contribute to rapid population growth. Such development creates ever larger groups of children and young people, whose early life experiences will shape their prospects for success.
A continued decline in fertility can stabilize the number of children and young people in the population, facilitating increased investment in health care and education per child. With such changes, along with measures to ensure access to decent work, a large and young population presents an opportunity to accelerate economic and social development — a phenomenon known as stocking. ie demographics.
Today, less than 16% of the global population lives in high-income countries, a proportion that is expected to fall to 13% by 2050. In contrast, low- and middle-income countries are the opposite. is home to more than half of the world’s population (9 and 43 percent, respectively).
The share of the global population living in these two groups of countries is projected to increase to more than 60% by 2050. Indeed, future world population growth will mainly take place in low-income countries. low and medium low.
Figure 1. Distribution of world population by income group, 2022, 2030 and 2050 Note: numbers may not add up due to rounding.
The higher rates of population growth in low- and middle-income countries are driven by falling mortality rates, with fertility levels remaining relatively high. If the populations of these countries continue to grow at their current rate, their combined size will double in about 26 years.
Today, in low-income countries, the average woman gives birth to 4.5 children in her lifetime. This number is projected to fall to just under three births per woman by 2050. In comparison, women in high-income countries now have an average of 1.6 children.
Between 1990 and 2022, improvements in health care services in low-income countries tripled the survival prospects of children under the age of five. baby born in a high-income country.
Although a small convergence is predicted in the coming decades, these large differences are expected to remain intact.
The results were uneven for people across the globe calling for action and new investment. States and the international community need to redouble their efforts to accelerate the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals and ensure that no one is left behind. Whether a girl in Juba or a boy in Mumbai will enjoy a long, healthy and fulfilling life depends on the world’s commitment to ensuring that all 8 billion inhabitants of the planet will live a long, healthy and fulfilling life. have a real chance to find success.
IPS UN Office
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