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Xi Jinping is ready to consolidate his role as China’is the most powerful leader in decades this month, when members of the country’s ruling Communist Party meet for a leadership reshuffle that has lasted twice in a decade.
In recent years, these meetings have seen a logical transfer of power: the conference for the top leadership of the party, which has completed two five-year terms, to transfer power to a carefully chosen successor.
But this year, Mr. Xi is expected to break that precedentassumes a third term as the party’s general secretary and ushers China into a new era of strong rule and uncertainty over when or how the country will meet a new leader. other religion.
As a result, the 20th Party Congress is one of the most consequential and closely watched party meetings in decades, and will reveal much about the direction of the world’s second-largest economy. in the next 5 years.
Here’s what you need to know about the events – and how China chooses its leaders.
The National Congress of the Communist Party of China, known simply as the Party Congress, is a weeklong conclave that meets every five years to appoint new leaders, discuss change in the party constitution and set the policy agenda for the country.
The Congress itself, usually held in October or November, summons nearly 2,300 carefully selected Communist party members, known as delegates, from all over the country. These delegates ranged from provincial officials and military officers to experts in the fields, and so-called grassroots representatives such as farmers and industrial workers. Just over a quarter are women, while about 11% are from ethnic minorities, according to figures released ahead of this year’s congress.
The group also includes the hierarchy of the Communist Party of China, one of the largest political parties in the world with more than 96 million members.
There are three distinct rings of power in that hierarchy. About 400 delegates to the National Congress are members of the Party’s elite Central Committee, which in turn includes members of the upper echelons: the 25-member Politburo and the Standing Committee – the body China’s most powerful decision-making body, consisting of five members. nine men and led by the general secretary.
Politburo members are usually men from China’s majority Han ethnic group – there is only one woman in the group at present – who hold key government roles.
The week-long meeting is about the Communist Party – the dominant source of power in China – and will ultimately guide who should take up government positions. However, it is distinct from a state government meeting.
For example, while Mr. Xi is expected to be appointed general secretary of the party after the congress, he will not be confirmed for a third term as head of state or President of China. until an annual meeting of rubber stamp legislature March.
While votes are held at the Party Congress, this is seen by many as a formality – not a real electoral process. Instead, the real decisions are supposed to be made in an opaque process involving top leaders that began long before the Congress.
During the congress, delegates will vote for a new Central Committee – the main leadership body of the Party consisting of about 200 official members and about 200 other replacements, meeting regularly. and is responsible for formally selecting members of the Politburo.
Immediately after the end of the Congress, the newly formed 20th Central Committee held its first plenary session, where they selected the Politburo and the Committee’s Standing Committee.
Watchers of China’s elite politics believe that decisions about who fill these top positions are often made during months of room-by-room negotiations between senior party leaders. , where different power players or factions will often try and advance their candidates, with choices settled well before Congress begins.
This time, Mr. Xi is said to have largely eliminate his opponents and undermine the surviving power of party elders, who were previously thought to have played a key role in such decision-making.
Following the selection of the Central Committee, the new top leaders of the Party will enter the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, walking in order of importance.
As of 2017, Mr. Xi is expected to lead this group as the newly confirmed general secretary and introduce other members of the new Standing Committee in a nationally televised event.
The lineup will provide a rare glimpse into the black box of Chinese elite politics. China watchers will be waiting to see how many Standing Committee members are selected and who they are, as signs of whether Mr. Xi has absolute power or has made concessions. They will also be looking for a potential successor in the middle, which could provide clues as to how long Mr. Xi plans to stay in power.
For more than two decades, a new general secretary has been appointed in every other Parliament.
But since the last congress in 2017, Mr. Xi has signaled a plan to uphold every aspect of what is known as the trinity of power in China: control of the party, state and military. For one, at the last Congress, Mr break tradition and did not nominate a potential successor to the Standing Committee.
Then, a few months later, China’s rubber stamp legislature remove term limits for the President of China. This is widely seen as allowing Mr. Xi to continue to a third term as head of state, while retaining control of the party where real power lies.
While there is no formal term limit for the general secretary, staying at the top of the party will also require Mr. Xi to break another unwritten rule: the unofficial age limit of party.
The target is senior officials who are 68 years old or older at the time of the General Meeting to retire. At 69, Mr. Xi will skip this recent congress by staying in power. What is less clear is whether he will seek to grant other Politburo allies an exemption, circumventing one of the few neutral methods the party has to secure revenue, or vice versa. He can lower the retirement age so that others can dismiss some existing members.
The congress opened with the General Secretary reading a work report summarizing the achievements of the Party Committee in the past 5 years and indicating policy directions for the next 5 years.
This year, observers will be watching for signs of the party’s priorities when it comes to its restrictions zero-covid policyslope handling economic challengeand the stated goal of “reunion“With Taiwan – a self-governing democracy that the Communist leadership claims to be its own though has never controlled.
Mr. Xi is also expected to cement his legacy, possibly through revising the party constitution – a regular feature of each session of the National People’s Congress.
Last month, the Politburo discussed the changes in a scheduled meeting, according to a government statement that did not include specifics.
In 2017, Mr. Xi became the first leader since Mao Zedong – The founder of Communist China – added his philosophy to the constitution while still in power, and observers have suggested that Xi key principles may be additionally stored during this period.
These details will be an indication of how much power Mr. Xi holds in the upper echelons of the party – and how strong his support is as he enters a much-anticipated, groundbreaking third term. while leading one of the most powerful countries in the world.
