The Russian missile and drone strikes that killed at least 19 people across Ukraine on Monday were traumatic and widespread, but they weren’t as deadly as they could have been, amid War scenes included. murder on a large scale.
That has raised new questions about the quality of Russia’s weapons and the ability of its forces to implement President Vladimir V. Putin’s military designs.
Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said this could be a sign that Russia’s guided missiles are not very effective or are short of precision ammunition. Most of the missiles targeted energy and other civilian services, Putin said, in retaliation for an explosion on Russia’s bridge to occupied Crimea.
“Perhaps that’s Putin’s way of sending a warning shot to Ukraine: If you attack our infrastructure, we will intensify our attacks on your cities,” said Storey. But he and other experts admit that much about Russia’s arsenal remains unclear.
Here are some of what we know:
Russia may be lacking complex missiles.
Many Russian attacks – increasingly targeting civilian targets – are long-range attacks used outdated, unguided and inaccurate rockets, including some from the Soviet era. Ukrainian, Western and Russian analysts say the attacks appear to show that Russia is using very little of its most sophisticated weapons.
Western intelligence officials say that Russia used many of its most precise weapons, including cruise missiles and some ballistic missiles, in the early days of the invasion. Russia’s arms industry has long relied on imported electronic parts. As a result, analysts say, sanctions and export control seems to have limited the Kremlin’s ability to replenish its supplymaking it more dependent on unguided ammunition.
Experts say that, by using dozens of precision missiles against civilian targets, Russia will have fewer targets to use on the battlefield because it has to face Ukrainian counter-attacks on the side. east and south.
“Given the way they are constrained in military resources and material, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to maintain a fighting tempo,” said Ridzwan Rahmat, principal defense analyst at Janes, based in Singapore. which they showed on Monday.”
It is increasingly turning to Iran and North Korea for supply.
Russia bought military drones from Iran and, according to intelligence sources, shells and missiles from North Korea. Analysts see both developments as another sign that sanctions have hampered Russia’s military supply lines.
Iran has confirmed that the drone deal with Russia is part of a pre-war military agreement, and Iranian-made drones have been spotted over Ukraine more often. Ukraine’s military said that of the 24 drones Russia used in Monday’s attacks, more than half were Iranian.
Ukrainian soldiers said that Iran’s drones – which has a payload of about 80 pounds and is self-destructive – is an effective battlefield weapon.
There is no solid evidence that Russia has purchased North Korean weapons, Storey said. But if true, he added, “it’s a sign of despair.”
Russia’s nuclear weapons remain a threat, though it’s unclear whether the Kremlin uses them.
Russia has a large supply of tactical nuclear weapons – maybe about 2,000, far more than the nearly 100 that NATO has placed across Europe. In recent weeks, Putin has raised the prospect of using nuclear weapons to maintain his long-term territorial interests in Ukraine.
Does he really use them though great risks – for both Ukraine and Russia and the wider region – is a different story.
Senior US officials say they have not seen any evidence in recent days of Russia transferring its nuclear assets. And on Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov dismissed speculation that Russia would use nuclear weapons in response to the Crimean attack as “completely incorrect.”
Russian missiles are already vulnerable to Ukrainian air defenses.
Storey said Monday’s relatively low casualty figure was partly a result of Ukraine being able to shoot down some of the Russian missiles with an air defense system that remained intact during the war.
On Tuesday, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said its forces had shot down about 300 Russian cruise missiles As of February. That tally could not be confirmed. The total number of Russian missiles fired during the war is said to be in the thousands.
Lara Jakes contribution report.
