Spaniards went to the polls on Sunday to vote in an early general election that could see the right-wing return to power and more importantly, the far-right taking part in national government for the first time since Franco’s dictatorship nearly half a century ago.
The outcome will determine whether Spain – a country of about 48 million people and the fourth largest economy in the European Union – will follow a Development trends in Europewhere far-right parties are growing in popularity and in some cases gain power by participating in governments as junior partners.
How do we get here?
Spain has succeeded in stabilizing its economy and politics after years of upheaval marked by devastating financial crisisOne Protracted separatist conflict in Catalonia And repeatedly failed to form a government.
Pedro Sanchez, the incumbent prime minister, has been in power for five years. He led a fragile coalition government of various leftist parties, including his own, the Spanish Socialist Workers Party.
However, under Mr. Sánchez’s leadership, Spain experienced strong economic growth and low inflation. He is also well known in the European Union for his progressive and pro-European policies.
Spain won’t elect a new Parliament until November. But after the Socialists and their allies suffered crushing defeats in the regional and municipal elections in May, Mr. Sánchez dissolved the National Assembly and called a snap election for this Sunday. He said the results of the vote conveyed “a message beyond” the outrage of locals and that he was “personally responsible for the outcome”.
The move is seen as an attempt by Mr Sánchez to woo his supporters and prevent the gradual decline in popularity of his coalition government. But it also paved the way for the conservative Popular Party to return to power sooner than expected — possibly in alliance with the far right.
What is at stake?
Spain has long been seen as a bulwark against the rise of nationalism in Europe. While populist and far-right victories are piling up across the continent, nationalist forces in Spain have long lost ground, largely because Spaniards remain traumatized by General Francisco Franco’s four-decade-long dictatorship.
That began to change in recent years, following a secessionist movement in Catalonia, northeastern Spain, helped revive nationalist sentiments. The main catalyst for that resurgence, Vox – a party with an anti-migrant agenda and a history of opposing LGBTQ rights and questioning climate change – is now projected to collect about 13% of the vote on Sunday.
This result will not have major consequences if the People’s Party, the party that is leading poll with about 34 percent intent to vote, no Vox support is needed to run. But most learn hints that it will, meaning that the far right could join the Spanish government for the first time since democracy returned in the 1970s.
The Popular Party refrained from saying whether it would seek to rule with Vox. But it’s already there forged some local alliance agreement with the far right after the May elections, in a move many see as a harbinger of a broader national coalition.
During the election campaign, Mr. Sánchez and his allies focused on the threat of conservatives bringing Vox into government, saying Sunday’s election would be a choice between liberal democracy and right-wing populism. The ballot, Mr. Sánchez speak“will make it clear whether the Spaniards want a government on the side of Joe Biden or Donald Trump, of Lula da Silva or Jair Bolsonaro.”
If the left retains power, the Socialists, which make up about 28%, could seek to form a coalition with Sumar, a platform of leftist parties.
Whoever wins, the next prime minister will have to address concerns about rising energy prices with other long-term issues, including The drought is getting more and more severe And run belong to African migrants risk their lives to reach Spain. The country also assumed the presidency of the Council of the European Union this month, and the outcome of the vote could mean a leadership change in Spain while advancing the continent’s political agenda.
What are the problems?
Under Mr. Sánchez’s leadership, the Spanish economy has recovered from the lows in 2020, at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, to growth rate over 5 percent in both 2021 and 2022. The country’s gross domestic product is forecast will expand by 1.9% this year, a faster rate than most EU countries.
The Spanish government also minimum wage increase by about 50 percent from 2018 and keep inflation under control at one of the lowest in Europe.
The Popular Party and Vox have fiercely criticized these laws, saying they sow division in society. In particular, they attacked the law on sexual consent, also known as the “Only Yes Means Yes” law, which changed sentencing requirements and created a loophole that cut prison time for hundreds of convicted sex offenders.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the Popular Party, also accused Mr Sánchez of promoting separatism by relying on the votes of Catalan and Basque pro-independence parties in Parliament. He promised to repeal any legislation that had been passed with the support of EH Bildu, a leftist Basque separatist party led by Arnaldo Otegi, a convicted member of the disbanded Eta terrorist group.
And despite strong economic growth, Spain still has the highest unemployment rate of all countries in the European Unionand the purchasing power of many Spaniards remains weak, causing disappointment — evidence, according to the opposition, that the economic recovery is far from complete.
How do elections work and what’s next?
All 350 seats in Spain’s lower house, which appoints a prime minister, along with two-thirds of the upper house and upper house, are up for grabs.
Polling stations open at 9 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. Sunday in most cities. Opinion polls, published soon after in the Spanish media, showed the opposition People’s Party leading, but without a clear majority. Official results are expected later.
And even with the outcome known, Spain is unlikely to have a new prime minister within weeks, as Parliament needs to reconvene and the winning party will likely have to enter negotiations to form a governing coalition – a process that could take weeks, if not months. (All polls have ruled out the possibility that a single party will win an absolute majority in Parliament.)
If neither of the two expected coalitions – the Popular and Vox, or the Socialists and Sumar – fails to meet the threshold needed to achieve a majority in Parliament, they will have to turn to smaller regional parties for support.
