Derbies, Rivalry and clasicos serves as a useful mile marker throughout a long football season. They give us an excuse to check out the two key teams, see how things are going, and see what’s happened since the last time the teams met. With the Bundesliga Der Klassiker – Bayern Munich compare to Borussia Dortmund – continues on Saturday in Dortmund (watch LIVE, 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+), let’s do some testing.
What has happened since the last time German Last time heavyweights faced off? To answer this question, I dived into the stats and spoke with former Bayern Munich and German national team captain Philipp Lahm.
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The teams are only one point apart in the Bundesliga table
Since Bayern’s 3-1 win over BVB in GermanySuper Cup on August 17, Bayern’s sixth straight win in a head-to-head series, both teams have faced injuries and random inconsistencies. Borussia Dortmund have seriously missed the star striker Erling Haaland, missing 6 Bundesliga matches and 3 Champions League matches due to injury. But the other core players prefer left-backs Raphael Guerreiro, winger Gio Reyna, midfielder Emre Can and Mahmoud Dahoud, attacking midfielder Thorgan Hazard and defender Mats Hummels also missed the time, while the star midfielder is developing Jude Bellingham also suffered minor injuries last week; His status for Saturday is uncertain.
As mid-season approached, freshman coach Marco Rose barely had a chance to field his full, first-choice squad, even in practice. Therefore, we also do not have a clear vision of what Rose wants to accomplish at Dortmund. Lahm said: “He’s been lucky with a lot of injuries. “For that reason, he may have experimented a bit, and it doesn’t always work out. I believe he is still in the process of finding the right system for Dortmund, but for that. , again, he needs healthy players.”
BVB’s problems came mainly to them in the Champions League tie, where they started with two wins, but lost three games in a row 10-2 on aggregate and were relegated to the Europa knockout stage. League. But even with a dwindling squad, they still claim important league wins, most recently a 3-1 win at Wolfsburg last Saturday.
Bayern’s problems aren’t too significant, and they certainly don’t affect the club’s Champions League standing: the 2020 European champions have won all five of their group stage games so far by a combined score. March 19. But 2-1 to lose Eintracht Frankfurt and Augsburg provided some unexpected drops, and they were jarringly knocked out of the DFB-Pokal when they lost 5-0 to Borussia Monchengladbach.
New coach Julian Nagelsmann, who has missed a few games due to a positive coronavirus test, has been forced to change his squad, especially in midfield.
Joshua Kimmich missed time due to quarantine and a positive coronavirus test – he also came out for Saturday’s game. Right behind Benjamin Pavard, who often plays as a midfielder while playing construction, missed the first month of the season with an ankle injury, Corentin Tolisso worry Next month with calf problems and now it’s buyback summer Marcel Sabitzer He also had a calf injury. Bayern still have Leon Goretzka, with Tolisso and Pavard both available, but they may not enjoy the midfield advantage they usually do against BVB.
Despite Bayern’s better form in Europe, the two teams are actually just one point apart in the Bundesliga table, and no one else is within six points of the top team. While the tournament produced some pleasant surprises, it’s easy to see this as a two-team race.
“Several teams have surprised me – Freiburg is one of them,” says Lahm. Freiburg are in 4th place and could have been higher if it weren’t for the recent 1-goal defeats to Bochum and Bayern. “They have been excellent so far. But I believe the championship will be decided between Bayern and Dortmund. I think Leipzig and Leverkusen have left some points behind, so I believe it will be a Bayern thing.” -Dortmund at the end.”
Saturday’s winner will take the lead on the 15th Match.
BVB’s bad injury luck was offset by good luck in the tournament
Rose’s side have over-performed their projected target numbers so far – they averaged 2.1 xG per game and allowed 1.6, but in terms of actual goals, they write 2.5 and allow 1.5. The dominant performance comes mainly from Haaland, who has scored 10 league goals on the 7.1 xG field in just 557 Bundesliga minutes – equivalent to 6.2 full-time games). But the defense is perhaps fortunate not to take the extra risk: while they are ninth in the league in goals allowed and sixth in shots allowed per possession (0.12), they stand 11th for allowed xG and 16th for allowed xG per shot (0.14) .
Rose’s style is to control the ball, but the disarrayed midfield makes them more vulnerable than ever to the counter-attack.
As one would expect, BVB is a very different team with and without Haaland. “Erling Haaland is a hugely important player for Borussia Dortmund,” said Lahm, “not only in terms of his playing skills, but also in his attitude, what he does for the team, what he does for the other players, pulls along with them, infuses them with his enthusiasm and really helps them get better. “
With Haaland in the squad, they’re prolific and free – in his seven league games, they’ve averaged 2.6 points per game and 3.3 goals with 1.9 goals conceded. Without him, they are more conservative, averaging 1.7 goals, but only allowing 1.0 and still squeezing out 2.0 points per game.
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Janusz Michallik looks on Erling Haaland’s performance after he came on from the bench to score in the 3-1 wins for Dortmund and Wolfsburg.
The Norwegian striker’s presence clearly had an impact, but Donyell MalenRecent play of must also be encouraged. 22 years old, from PSV Eindhoven in July, has only scored two goals in the league, but those goals have come in his last two games. His shot count also slowly increased.
“He’s joined a new club, it’s a new league, so things will take their time,” Lahm said. “He’s definitely a player with outstanding skill, and a player that you just need to play and you need to give time to. Everything takes time.”
Malen’s 23-yard cannonball in the 55th minute against Wolfsburg gave BVB a lead they won’t give up, and it will be interesting to see how he fits into Rose’s plans when Haaland returns to full strength.
Despite the disarray of midfield, meanwhile, Bayern is still Bayern
They are statistically dominating, including at a loss. Bayern average 3.0 xG per game (0.9 more than second place RB Leipzig) and 3.2 goals (0.7 more than BVB). They try to take more shots per possession than anyone else, and average the highest xG/shots in the league. In all competitions this season, the star striker Robert lewandowski already has 25 goals in 20 games, winger Serge Gnabry there are eight goals, do them all Thomas Muller got six goals and 12 assists, and a resurgence Leroy Sane, switched back to his natural left wing – he played on the right for his previous manager, Hansi Flick – had nine goals and nine assists.
“I believe Julian Nagelsmann simply saw where Leroy Sane could play with maximum confidence and put him back there,” Lahm said of Sane’s improvement. “Also, for a player who changed clubs like Leroy a year ago, it’s important to gain that confidence by simply being allowed to play a few games in a row. There can be good games and bad game between them, but that approach can restore confidence to players.”
Sane has played 1,442 minutes in all competitions this year, almost 60% of what he scored all of last season (2,454).
Bayern are mostly dominant in defence, allowing for the fewest shots per possession and the lowest xG per shot. They also have certain goals and few goals; partly thanks to the addition Dayot Upamecano from Nagelsmann’s former club, RBL, they were able to challenge opposing attackers with near-shocking success. Left back Alphonso Davies have won 80 of 123 duels this season (65%), while Upamecano and centre-back Lukas Hernandez have won 80 of 120 (67%). Their DFB-Pokal loss to Gladbach, where they allowed a steady stream of high-quality scoring opportunities, was the fundamental exception to any rule.
In Nagelsmann, Bayern found natural successors to both Pep Guardiola (who managed the club from 2013-16) and Flick (2019-21).
“I believe Julian was quite a fan of Guardiola and took his role model,” Lahm said. “Bayern under Guardiola has become a multifaceted approach: sometimes three [at the back], sometimes four, sometimes four in a defensive mode, sometimes three in an offensive mode. Nagelsmann is a young, very modern type of coach, and with Guardiola already making his mark in the Bundesliga, I think he’s become a very good role model to follow. “
As one would expect, they would have been less impressive without Kimmich, 2nd Midfielder in ESPN 100. They actually lost to Augsburg on November 19, and they achieved a minimal advantage in the win over Dynamo Kyiv in the Champions League (2-1) and Arminia Bielefeld (1-0).
“Clearly Kimmich is a hugely important player for Bayern Munich,” said Lahm. “That’s true today, and certainly in the future with Goretzka. If key players like Kimmich, are absent from a top game, that’s not to be taken lightly. It certainly doesn’t help. What do you get?”
This is just the competition of so many
While Bayern won only 6/10 in the series from November 2016 to August 2019, they have won 6 consecutive matches with a total score of 18-7. BVB were good at battling the German champions, leading 2-0 (in Munich) and 1-0 (in Dortmund) in last season’s clashes, but Bayern reeled them in each time. head. In these six matches, Bayern have averaged 16.3 shots and 2.5 xG per game compared to BVB’s 8.2 and 1.2. They’ve got a higher xG in five of six games, more touchdowns in four, and a higher pass completion percentage in five games.
BVB has a chance with the return of Haaland and a Bayern midfield without Kimmich, but it’s hard to bet on a winning streak. “Haaland is back from injury, so that’s definitely an important factor,” said Lahm, “and they will also be playing in Dortmund in their own stadium, so I expect this to be a big one.” The match is very close.
“But personally I bet on Bayern Munich.”
That’s usually a pretty good bet.
