What would the Golden State Warriors be without Steph Curry?

According to the report, Stephen’s Curry Will be out of action next month because of a shoulder injury. what will golden empire warriors like without him? It’s not a rhetorical question, nor is it a setting for a conversation about whether the team should be bewildered about their post-season aspirations. I mean, legally, what would it be like to produce the Warriors on a game-by-game basis with their MVP unavailable?

Let’s explore together.

Every year, the month before the NBA season, I plan to produce box scores for every player at the rotational level in the NBA (note: I am currently updating those products once a week for those still interested in drafting new virtual ring tournaments, now fantasy football season is coming to an end). I use a number of different techniques in these predictions, but when taking into account the absence of a previously high-usage player, one approach is to focus more on which teammates have the ability to fill in the gaps of shots, passes and redirects and extrapolate from that direction. Another approach is to focus more on minutes played, such as who is most likely to fill them and how their previous output per minute translates into those larger minutes. ?

For this Warriors team, minus Steph, I’ll rely on both of those approaches. Curry is 12th in the NBA with an Usage Rate of 31.1 this season, accounting for 20.2 goals (including 11.6 3-pointers), 5.2 free throws, 6.8 times assists and 3.1 redirects per game. That’s some pretty big stats shoes to fill. The teammate most likely to become an understudy is the Honorable Third Splash Brother Jordan Pooleanother combo defender comfortable with mass shooting from the worm as well as leading an attack.

At the end of last season, Curry picked up an injury on March 16 and missed most of that game as well as the final 12 games before the knockout stages. In those competitions, Poole filled Curry with a role very similar to what he will likely be asked to do this season. In fact, let’s use Poole’s production from that action month earlier this year as a template for his projected production for this time period:

• pool: 26.0 PPG (8.4 out of 19.6 FG, 4.2 out of 11.1 3PG, 5.0 out of 5.3 FT), 5.9 APG and 3.2 TO/G; 35.3 MPG

These numbers are interesting, because they are taken from earlier time periods, but they can very easily be extrapolated using the production vacuum and time approaches mentioned above. above. If you take Poole’s per-minute averages from his first 23 games this season, multiply them by 35.3 MPG and increase all his shots by 10%, you get almost exactly the numbers he averaged in Curry’s absence at the end of last game. Season. To double check, that helps convince me that these are very reasonable estimates for Poole for the next month.

Next, OG Splash Brother Klay Thompson. Thompson is still working hard to get back to the form of last season before Curry’s absence, and so will the start of this season. Therefore, neither a direct sub of the previous season’s month numbers nor an extrapolation based on this entire season is likely to be accurate. However, in the last 10 games he’s played even with Curry on the roster, Thompson has established a yield more commensurate with his typical value than his full-season average playing. 33.1 MPG. If we calculate his average over that 10-game period, then apply the same 10% increase in the number of times he takes shots on the chessboard, the strike predictions when not yes Thompson’s Curry would be:

• Thomson: 25.2 PPG (9.0 out of 20.0 FG, 5.1 out of 11.4 3PG, 2.1 out of 2.3 FT), 2.5 APG, 1.4 TO/G, 33.1 MPG

Scoring and 3 pointers can be a bit aggressive, but it’s within the realm of possibility. I would consider those best-case numbers and expect something more in the 23 PPG range, 4 3PG in the midrange. Thompson still isn’t as explosive as he used to be, and without Curry engaging the opposing defence, Thompson may not get his good looks ratio from deep for next month. However, he can also have more opportunities to tackle the ball and strike into the paint zone, which may help his shot rate a bit but could also lead to a slight increase. on the number of turns.

Andrew Wiggins being the third-highest scorer for the Warriors could be asked for more when Curry is out. Wiggins has missed the last five games because of a groin strain, and was still listed as sidelined on Friday, but he has been allowed back into training and will probably return well against Curry. Wiggins has scored double that in every game this season, but he fluctuates between 10 points (most recently in his third game before his injury absence) and 36 points (the game before absent due to injury). That volatility, however, is largely due to the presence of so many goalscorers for the Warriors, and with Curry, he’ll be in a more consistent form. He has been playing better as the season has progressed, with consistent form established in his last 13 games. Wiggins has averaged over 20 PPG over the many seasons of his career and he now shoots 3 more often and more accurately than ever. Applying the same 10% increase in his shots in his last 13 games as with defenders, Wiggins’ attack estimates without Curry would be:

• toupee: 22.3 PPG (8.7 out of 16.1 FG, 3.9 out of 8.0 3PG, 1.0 out of 1.7 FT), 1.7 APG, 1.7 TO/G, 32.4 MPG

Wiggins could also see a slight increase in bounces, as Curry hit the glass harder than his defender substitutes, helping him hit around eight goals per game.

Blue Draymond was a de facto point guard, often even when Curry was playing, but his goals were worthless depending on these days. However, he can increase his assists in Curry’s absence, more than 8 times per game.

Finally, consider the player most likely to absorb the majority of Curry’s playing time: defender Donte DiVincenzo (available in 97.7% of ESPN leagues). Among the players who come on from the bench can advance in minutes, including two Moses mood and Jonathan Kuminga, DiVincenzo is best suited to earn a sixth-person full-work minute similar to Poole’s current 28.4 MPG. DiVincenzo has played in that order several times in his career and can handle them this month. DiVincenzo picked up an injury earlier in the season, and in the last nine games he’s improved more than he did when he came back. If we were to estimate 28.4 MPG for him, given his per-minute figures from the past nine games, his prediction for next month would be:

• DiVincenzo: 12.3 PPG (4.3 out of 10.7 FG, 2.5 out of 7.0 3PG, 1.8 out of 2.1 FT), 3.1 APG, 2.1 TO/G, 28.4 MPG

Curry is a truly irreplaceable type of player. In his absence, however, the Warriors will redistribute minutes and shots to try to fill that void. This is an exercise in predicting what their new numbers might look like. For those looking to make moves in fantasy tournaments, in DFS games, or in the everyday props market, hopefully these can serve as logical touchpoints to help guide your decisions.