By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
When it comes to preparing for the Kentucky Derby (G1), there’s no such thing as a one-size-fits-all approach. At this point, there are no less than nine distinct paths that horses can follow to qualify for the Derby.
But not all roads are created equal — some roads leading to Derby are more performant than others. With the 2022 Kentucky Derby coming up, let’s review the nine main paths to commissions, then use historical data to rate (on a scale of one to five) how likely they are to create a Derby champion .
Arkansas
The Arkansas to Kentucky Derby route includes four extensive qualifiers at Oaklawn Park, all of which take place during the year of the Derby. The series culminates with the Arkansas Derby (G1), which has brought together Kentucky Derby heroes such as Smarty Jones (2004), Super Saver (2010), American Pharoah (2015) and Country House (2019) since the turn of the century. this.
Year after year, Arkansas proved to be some of the best sophomores at training, even if they didn’t win the Derby. Champion and/or classic winners Creator, Lookin At Lucky, Curlin, Attorney Ron, Afleet Alex have all competed in Oaklawn’s Derby competitions since 2005, marking the series’ Oaklawn is one of the most productive films on the Derby circuit.
Rating: 4
California
Over the past decade, no state has produced more Kentucky Derby winners than California, which has hosted seven to eight runs at Santa Anita, Los Alamitos, Golden Gate Fields and (occasionally) Del Mar. Over a 10-year period between 2012 and 2021, champions Derby I’ll Have Another (2012), California Chrome (2014), American Pharoah (2015), Nyquist (2016), Justify (2018), Authentic (2020) and Medina Spirit (2021, status in dispute) all contested at least one prep race in California. More specifically, it all started at Santa Anita, and all but Pharoah and Nyquist of America competed for the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Quality often goes deep in California, and it’s not uncommon to see California sophomores crisscrossing the country to win qualifiers in other states. Carried away? California is the first place to go when looking for candidates for the Kentucky Derby.
Rating: 5
Dubai
Derby rivals arriving by way of Dubai are not uncommon; since 2000, 15 horses have used the UAE Derby (G2) as a springboard for Churchill Downs. But none of the 15 made it past the super-perfect Kentucky Derby, even though the group includes talented athletes like two-time Dubai World Cup (G1) champion Thunder Snow and Breeders’ Cup champion Juvenile Turf (G1) Mendelssohn.
Rating: 1
Europe
So far, not many European riders have been interested in using the European Road to the Kentucky Derby as a springboard to the Churchill Downs. As the seven qualifying races take place on grass and synthetics rather than dirt, the European Race to the Kentucky Derby is more likely to produce European classics than the Triple Crown.
Rating: 1
Florida
Since the turn of the century, only Florida has been able to compete with California as a regular source of Kentucky Derby winners. The Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park has produced Kentucky Derby winners such as Monarchos (2001), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016) and Always Dreaming ( 2017), while the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at the Tampa Bay Downs featured Street Sense (2007) and Super Saver (2010).
All told, Florida’s five openings at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs have produced eight Derby winners since 2000, an impressive streak of success. However, it’s likely that the continued rise of Arkansas and Louisiana will weaken Florida’s impact in the 2020s — we’ve already seen the shift with the Eclipse Award-winning coach’s remarkable stability , Brad Cox, favors Arkansas and Louisiana over Florida.
Rating: 4
Kentucky
Spanning seven to eight races at three different tracks from September through April, Kentucky’s road to the Derby covers a lot of territory. In fact, it’s hard to define the definition of a “Kentucky Derby rival,” because many horses combine a stop or two in Kentucky with prep runs in other states. For example, the route from Florida to Kentucky is a popular route for Derby competitors to use during the winter and spring.
But in any case, Kentucky has surprisingly struggled to topple Derby winners in recent years. The last Run for the Roses champ to start in one of Kentucky’s winters or springs was Animal Kingdom (2011), who won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) when it was 2nd known as the Spiral Staking. Furthermore, Keeneland’s historic Blue Grass S. (G2) has produced only one Derby champion (Street Sense, 2007) in the past 25 years.
Rating: 3
Louisiana
There are several ways to see the way to Louisiana’s Kentucky Derby, which is expanding from three to four qualifiers (all at Fair Grounds) this season. You can take a skeptical look and see how the series culminated with the Louisiana Derby (G2), and only two horses — 1924 Black Gold and 1996 Grindstone — ever completed the Louisiana Double. Derby / Kentucky Derby.
On the other hand, you can show how War Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003) and Country House (2019) have used the Fair Grounds qualifiers as springboards for Derby glory over the past 20 years. Furthermore, the Louisiana Derby has produced seven runners to complete three Kentucky Derbys since 2011, so it’s safe to say the series is getting stronger. With celebrity coaches Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox focusing on the Fair Grounds each winter, it’s likely we’ll see the Fair Grounds produce multiple Kentucky Derby winners in the 2020s.
Rating: 3
New York
New York has long been the epicenter of luxury racing in the United States, so you might be surprised to learn that the five Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races held annually at the Aqueduct aren’t particularly productive. In recent years.
Simply put, the last Kentucky Derby winner to start in one of the New York qualifiers was Funny Cide (2003), runner-up at Wood Memorial (G2). Meanwhile, Remsen S. (G2) hasn’t produced a Derby champion since Thunder Gulch in 1995, and Gotham S. (G3)’s only starter to win a Derby is the Secretariat. signed in 1973.
Historically, the Wood Memorial was an important stepping stone to the Derby, which produced 20 winners between 1930 and 2003. But many of those winners came as the route from Florida arrived. New York to Derby becoming popular; today, the horses are more likely to compete exclusively in Florida or target Blue Grass S. (G2) in Kentucky, leaving Wood Memorial as a less effective qualifier instead.
Rating: 2
Japan
Although the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby has yet to find a Derby winner, the four qualifying races all took place on dirt roads and Master Fencer used the series as a springboard to a solid sixth place finish. sure in the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Following the momentum of Japan’s first two Breeders’ Cup victories last month, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Japanese first-class star aiming for the 2022 Kentucky Derby, which opened the door to a nasty win. The quality of races in Japan is high, and dirty American blood is common. The only concern is the fact that international challengers worldwide have not enjoyed the best of luck in the Kentucky Derby; The last Derby winner based outside of North America was Canonero II in 1971.
Rating: 2
Now it’s your turn! Which region do you believe is most likely to produce a Kentucky Derby winner in 2022?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, amputee, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers the Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
