Farmers shouted slogans while blocking railway tracks during a protest demanding compensation and jobs for the families of those killed during a protest against the central government's agricultural reforms on the outskirts of Amritsar on Wednesday. December 24, 2021.
Narinder Nanu | AFP | beautiful images
NEW DELHI – Farmers in India's Punjab state are speaking out against their ongoing protests as the second phase of India's general election begins on Friday.
Thousands of farmers continue to call for support for their needs, first and foremost a legal guarantee of a minimum support price for their products.
They have occupied railway lines in the northwestern state of Punjab, disrupting operations. trains on 149 routes or had their journeys cancelled, diverted or terminated midway on Wednesday, as they demanded the release of farmers detained by police.
While the protesters are starting to gather strength, this agitation, which began in February, appears to be a pale shadow of their movement in 2020 when hundreds of thousands of farmers took to the streets to protest. The year-long standoff against the three farm laws.
In a rare policy failure by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, The farm laws have been revoked in 2021.
This time, however, cordoned off with barricades and under close surveillance by state police and paramilitary forces, the protests were relatively discreet and largely confined to the Shambhu and Khanauri between the states of Punjab and Haryana in northern India.
Several prominent leaders from other states who participated in previous protests were also injured missing in action.
The government has shown no signs of surrendering, even as it risks losing support from a large number of farmers at a time when Modi is trying to win a third term in national elections.
The Congress and some opposition parties have raised the farmers' demand for minimum support price (MSP) in manifestowhile the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has “steadfastly refused to concede to this demand, so it will have some effect.” [electorally]”, said Yogendra Yadav, political activist and former linguist.
About 250 million According to government data, people working in the agricultural sector in India make up about 45% of India's workforce.
According to Sanjay Kumar, co-director of Lokniti, a research program at the New Delhi-based Center for Development Studies, people are “very sympathetic” to the farmers' cause due to the BJP's high-handedness in deal with protesters. Society.
A survey by Lokniti-CSDS earlier this month found that 59% of respondents said the farmers' demands were “legitimate”, while 16% said the protests were a “conspiracy” against the government.
However, Modi's BJP's vote is unlikely to be significantly affected by the ongoing agitation. Some surveys predicted that the ruling party's victory is imminent in this national election.
Kumar said the protests were unlikely to have any significant impact on the BJP's electoral prospects.
“When farmers go to vote, it's not like they say: 'We are farmers so we have to vote collectively to overthrow this government or support that government.' Typically, they vote along party lines. Other identities will take over,” Kumar said.
Similar survey shows that 44% of people wish to re-elect the government, mainly due to its “good work”.
“People may be very worried, but what does it matter if they vote for the same party? I don't see any major change in the outcome of the 2024 election compared to 2019.” [when BJP won a second term]”, Kumar said.
CNBC did not receive an immediate response from India's Ministry of Agriculture on questions related to farmers' needs.
Quell dissent?
Farm leaders have alleged that the government is trying to keep the protests confined to Punjab and turn it into a local issue.
“When we started protesting, the government told us that we could not bring vehicles like tractors to Delhi but could come by public transport. However, when farmers from other BJP-ruled states tried to reach Delhi by train and bus, they were detained,” farmer leader Jagjit Singh Dallewal claimed, according to a CNBC translation of the statement his in Hindi.
Report from local media said dozens of farmers had been detained.
Follow now
A small group of farmers from Tamil Nadu staged a protest at Jantar Mantar in Delhi on Tuesday and Wednesday to show solidarity with farmers from Punjab and Haryana. They said they had also participated in protests at the Shabhu border, the center of the current protests.
“Now we will go to Varanasi and 1,000 people will file nominations against Modi,” said P. Ayyakannu, a farmer leader from Tamil Nadu. Mr. Modi is running for a parliamentary seat in the city of Varansai in Uttar Pradesh state.
Dallewal, convenor of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (non-political), a coalition of farmer unions under which the current protests have taken place, said they will continue to protest, but the demands are not political problem for them.
“We are sitting here while elections are going on, so political parties must take notice and include our demands in their poll manifestos,” Dallewal told CNBC.
What do Indian farmers want?
India's farmers' top demand is to be guaranteed a minimum support price – the lowest rate at which government agencies can buy crops from farmers – to protect them from wild market fluctuations. wild.
Farmers want MSP for their agricultural produce to be determined as per Government guidelines Swaminathan Commission about farmers. The committee issued five reports from 2004 to 2006, recommending that MSPs achieve a profit of 50% over production costs.
Other key demands include loan waiver, pensions for all farmers over 60 years of age, a sharp increase in wages – almost two to three times the current level – as well as a 200-day job guarantee. They also insisted that India must withdraw from the World Trade Organization.
Some economists say farmers' demands are not economically viable.
“These requirements are not only detrimental to the agriculture sector but also create a major blow to the economy,” said economist and former Chairman of the Agricultural Costs and Prices Commission, Government of India. . The entire economy will fall into chaos.” , said Ashok Gulati.
Farm leaders who spoke to CNBC, including Dallewal, said their demands were nothing new, and politicians, including the prime minister, said so too. promised most of the things they demanded in their previous political campaigns.
Former IMF managing director Surjit Bhalla, also a former member of the prime minister's economic advisory council, criticized the demands.
“One day, we will all become real… since 2014, we have taken important steps towards reality, but in certain areas, such as the agricultural sector karma, farm laws, we're still stuck in 19lame pants century,” he told CNBC.
Arun Kumar, an economist and former professor at New Delhi-based Jawahar Lal Nehru University, disagrees. He said talking about the government being overloaded by farmers' MSP demands is wrong.
“The legal guarantee for MSP will be valid only if the price [of commodities] drops below a certain level. Only then will the government need to buy,” Kumar told CNBC. “If prices do not fall below MSP, the government does not have to buy anything. In fact, 95% of products can be sold on the open market.”
— CNBC's Naman Tandon contributed to this story.
