Johannesburg, October 18 (IPS) – An aging population need not be a burden, experts told MPs at a conference organized by UNFPA’s Asia Pacific Regional Office and the Population and Development Association Asia Development (APDA) co-hosted.
Two National Transfer Accounts (NTA) experts told the session that with good planning and policy, it is possible to change the trajectory so that retirees are not solely dependent on the state.
NTPs provide a unified accounting framework for economic flows from one generation to the next.
UNFPAThe short video outlines the impact of an aging population in Thailand. Currently, adults take care of three elders and two children, but with an aging population by 2025 this number will increase to four elders and three children, but by 2035 the number of dependents will increased to six adults and three children.
Professor Sang-Hyop Lee of the East-West Center and the University of Hawaii, succinctly explained in a “population presentation”. These include “considering how changing demographics affect society and the economy, now and in the future,” and “what public policies can be pursued to influence to the result”.
Lee says that using NTA tools with disaggregated data, including consumption (both private and public) and other variables such as income and savings, can aid policy formulation.
By 2080, he said, the entire Asia Pacific region will have aging populations – and public policy can change the outcome by including evidence and knowledge-based policy to influence labor patterns of the female, young and elderly workforce; increase productivity through effective education, health investments, training and ultimately improving the transition from work to retirement.
Eduardo Klein, Regional Representative of HelpAge International, who chaired the session, commented that the main takeaway was that NTPs are an important tool for developing adaptation strategies to aging populations.
In her keynote address, the Maldives Minister of Gender, Family and Social Services, Aishath Mohamed Didi, said that her country, which is a small island nation, faces “developmental challenges” particularly developed and vulnerable to economic shocks and climate change”.
The population is about 500 000 people, 70% of which are Maldivian and the rest are foreigners; 64% are of working age, and more than 37% are under 25 years old; people 65 and older make up 3.4% of the population.
Didi said: “The Maldives entered the opportunity in 2010 when the majority of the population was working and it is estimated that the democratic transition would be complete by 2030. “Due to a rapid decline in fertility and an increase in life expectancy, It is estimated that the aging population will become an aging population by 2030”.
She outlined various policy changes in the Maldives, including addressing investment in children, which are lower than in other economies with similar fertility or development levels. The country has included free basic education from 4 to 16 years old and also set aside US$30 million to assist 15,000 students in achieving their first degree. This has been expanded to include zero-interest loans. Over the past 2-3 years, the Maldives has spent more than $64 million supporting around 2000 students studying abroad in 31 countries. Other efforts to improve education include investing in technical and vocational education and providing skills development opportunities for youth, including apprenticeship programs, especially in suburban areas. far away from the capital or central areas.
Didi said the Maldives is heavily dependent on tourism, but foreign workers (mostly men) make up 60% of the workforce. Women play only a small role in the industry and hold the most jobs in the informal sector.
“Young people are required to become skilled and equipped to compete with foreign workers in the domestic economy,” Didi said, adding that the demographic dividend transition Learning is expected to create both opportunities and challenges. “Total public spending on health care and other social protection needs to increase by more than 2% per year through 2050 to maintain the same level of service that people enjoy in 2022 – even with average benefits. per capita, the government’s budget needs to increase significantly. “
Klein notes that Didi’s overview shows how the Maldives has a demographic dividend and how it is investing in the future, and that that investment provides a “return in terms of improved health and an improved population.” better educated, more productive, more engaged and healthier, living in a harmonious society. “
Rikiya Matsukura, Associate Professor at Nihon University, notes that opportunities arise when strategic planning and policymaking. Although an aging population is “inevitable” and “untreatable”, policymakers have played a key role in changing the trajectory.
Matsukura outlined four demographic returns: The first demographic is achieved through workforce expansion. The second demographic dividend is achieved through investment in human capital – leading to higher productivity. The third demographic dividend, which he calls the “permanent dividend” or the “silver dividend,” is achieved through investment in longevity and longer working life. Finally, the fourth dividend will be achieved by investing in education, especially in STEM fields.
While 55- to 70-year-olds may not be working, if they are healthy, they can work, Matsukura said, which could create an additional workforce.
In the case of Japan, the income generated by elderly workers could correspond to 3.2 to 6% of Japan’s real GDP, he noted.
This elderly workforce can be powered by technology – artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics and the economy could grow by 35% if technology can make housework easier.
Lee notes that there are no easy answers but that what is needed is short-term and long-term planning that takes crises into account. This aging population problem will not go away.
Klein also says that planning for the future is complicated. For example, India (among other countries) has invested in education, but because of the COVID-19 pandemic, children cannot attend school for two years, which will have consequences for the workforce. Future. Climate change, along with aging, needs to be planned for Bangladesh.
During the discussion, parliamentarians were concerned about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Dr. Jetn Sirathranont, an MP from Thailand, noted that policymakers need to use NTA tools, but after the pandemic, every country, including Thailand, is experiencing a situation. “Less income, less revenue but high costs”.
Sirathranont asked how one might apply NTA tools in these cases.
While Klein quipped that this is a multimillion-dollar question, Lee said it’s essential to make short- and long-term plans that take into account crises like the pandemic. However, he noted, “this aging population problem is not going away.”
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