In addition to the war, the pandemic and rising interest rates, China is facing a downturn in its real estate sector and the Brazilian economy could be harmed by political uncertainty related to the elections. upcoming election, she said.
New data shows China economic growth and retail sales flagging, as the government imposed full-blown shutdowns to kill off the coronavirus. According to Gavekal Dragonomics, an economic research firm, as of April 11, 87 of China’s 100 largest cities had imposed some form of movement restriction.
The restrictions are once again disrupting global supply chains for electronics, car parts and other goods, while reducing China’s imports of oil, food and consumer goods. China is the world’s largest oil importer, and cooling demand there prompted the International Energy Agency last week to cut its forecast for oil demand growth this year to 1.9 million bpd, from last year’s increase of 5.6 million bpd.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the sanctions imposed to punish Moscow, also threaten to push European economies into recession. Last week, forecasters at leading German economic institutes expected that a complete European ban on Russian energy imports will reduce German output by 2.2% next year and push inflation up to 7.3%, a record for post-war Germany. war.
Global trade growth is also expected to slow this year. Expected World Trade Organization World merchandise trade volumes are up 3% this year, down from a previous forecast of 4.7%. But depending on how the pandemic and war play out, trade growth could be as low as 0.5% or as high as 5.5%, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the organization’s director general, said in a press conference last Tuesday.
The group forecasts that global trade growth will recover to 3.4% next year, although those estimates are also subject to change.
Dr Okonjo-Iweala said the war had prevented the organization’s economists from collecting key data on economic output, forcing them to rely on internal simulations of how sanctions on Russia , the destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure and the broader erosion of business and consumer confidence. will affect global growth, she said.
