The latest United Nations projections show that the world’s population could grow to about 8.5 billion people in 2030 and 9.7 billion people in 2050, before that. peaking at about 10.4 billion people in the 2080s. The population is expected to remain at that level until 2100.
Slowest growth rate since 1950
However, every year World population outlook report, released on Monday to coincide with World Population Dayalso note that Global population is growing at slowest rate since 1950has dropped to less than 1% in 2020.
The report claims fertility has fallen markedly in recent decades in many countries: today, two-thirds of the global population live in a country or region with fertility rates below 2.1 births per year. per woman, close to what is needed for long-term zero growth, for a population with low mortality.
In 61 countries or regions, populations are expected to decline by at least one percent over the next three decades, due to persistently low fertility and, in some cases, high migration rates.
The COVID-19 The pandemic has had an impact on population change: global life expectancy drops to 71 years in 2021 (down from 72.9 in 2019) and, in some countries, successive pandemics May reduce the number of short-term pregnancies and births.
John Wilmoth, Director of the United Nations Population Division, said: “Further actions by the Government to reduce fertility will have little impact on population growth between now and mid-century, given the young age structure. of today’s global population”. Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).
“However, the cumulative effect of lower fertility, if maintained for several decades, could be a more significant deceleration of global population growth in the second half of this century“.
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People wear protective masks in Tokyo, Japan.
Growth is concentrated in eight countries
More than half of the projected global population growth through 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the Republic of Tanzania.
Sub-Saharan African countries are expected to contribute more than half of the projected increase through 2050.
Liu Zhenmin, UN Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, warned that rapid population growth has led to the eradication of poverty, combating hunger and malnutrition, and increasing coverage of the health system. and education becomes more difficult.
‘Demographic dividend’
In most countries of sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in parts of Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the recent drop in fertility has resulted in a “demographic dividend”, with the proportion of the population in working age increases (25 to 64 years), creating opportunities for per capita economic growth.
To make the most of this opportunity, the report argues, countries should invest in further developing their human capital, by ensuring access to quality health care and education. quality at all ages, and by promoting opportunities for decent work and decent work.
Reach the UN Sustainable development goalsespecially those related to health, education and gender equality, will contribute to reducing fertility and slowing global population growth.
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More people are older, live longer
The world is expected to see more graying of hair by 2050: then it is projected that the number of people aged 65 and over worldwide will more than double the number of children under the age of 5 and the equivalent of number under 12 years old.
A further reduction in mortality rates will result in a global average life expectancy of around 77.2 years in 2050. However, by 2021 life expectancy in the least developed countries has already lagged behind. 7 years above the global average.
The report recommends that countries with aging populations take steps to adapt public programs to a growing number of older people, establishing universal and long-term care systems. term, while improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems.
“This year’s World Population Day falls on a pivotal year, as we anticipate the birth of the Earth’s eight billionth inhabitants,” said the UN. Secretary General António Guterresresponse to the report’s findings.
This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at medical advances that have extended life expectancy and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality. you,” he added. “At the same time, it’s a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of commitment to each other.“.
World Population Day
“Let us protect the human rights and ability of all individuals to make informed choices about having and when to have children,” The head of the United Nations said in his message tick World Population Daymatches the report.
“We are still living in a world of vast gender inequality – and we are seeing new attacks on women’s rightsincluding essential medical services,” said the Secretary-General.
He called the day “an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at medical advances that have extended life expectancy and dramatically reduced mortality in mothers and children”.
At the same time, Mr. Guterres described it as a reminder of “our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a time to reflect on how we still lack commitment to one another”.
Amid COVID-19, the climate crisis, war and conflict, humanitarian emergencies, hunger and poverty, he testified that “our world is in danger“.
“Pregnancy and delivery-related complications remain the leading cause of death among girls aged 15 to 19.”
Mr. Guterres emphasized that “eight billion people means eight billion opportunities to live a decent and fulfilling life“.
He called on everyone to contribute to a common future with greater equality and solidarity for the planet and future generations.
Road to Prosperity
World Population Day takes a moment to celebrate human progress, the World Population Fund (UNFPA) said in it message during the day.
Despite its challenges, UNFPA asserts that the world is “a place where a greater proportion of people are educated and live healthier lives than at any other time in history”.
“Societies that invest in their people, in their rights and choices, have proven time and time again that this is the path to the prosperity and peace that everyone desires. – and deserve it.”
