Sonya Seunghye LimFormer Station Chief, CIA
Sonya Seunghye Lim is a former Station Chief of the Central Intelligence Agency, where she enjoyed a stellar 24 year career in the Directorate of Operations, including two duties as Station Chief. She also served as Director of Operations at CIA Headquarters.
Christopher TurnerFormer CIA operations officer
Christopher Turner spent 25 years on the Directorate of Operations of the Central Intelligence Agency, during which time he completed a number of sensitive assignments in the Far East, South Asia and Europe.
IDEA – In the view of the United States intelligence community (USIC), the Cold War did not end in the 1990s with the fall of Communism. Its outer appearance merely changed. Beneath their thin economic and political engagement, Russia and China continue to pose threats to liberal democratic ideals and values. The past twenty years have seen massive Russian and Chinese operations against the United States and its allies to steal our secrets and disseminate anti-democratic propaganda.
But outside of USIC, political consolidation without a clear calculation and economic efficiency without taking into account long-term costs are the preferred approaches. Such wishful thinking has created a false sense of security – that war can be contained and invaders cut off from their maddening schemes. From the Russo-Georgian War in 2008 to Russia’s occupation of Crimea in 2014, its direct involvement in the 2015 Syrian conflict and this year’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has once again proved those perceptions. inaccurate and far-fetched. A world emerging from the horrors of Putin’s latest large-scale predation will require decisive action and clear policy to quell its dire consequences — rampant transmission. disinformation, persistent cyberattacks and devastating skirmishes in the economic, security and intelligence domains.
Since his invasion of Ukraine, television, internet and newspapers have been flooded with observations and analysis of many of Putin’s mistakes, centered on the fact that he made these mistakes despite appearances. The pro-KGB and the vast intelligence apparatus are pursuing and calling. It is clear that Putin chose to wage this war based on a multitude of false assumptions, on inaccurate assessments of the military’s capabilities and readiness, and on poor, misinterpreted intelligence. or rejected (or possibly all three). Putin’s Russia as a threat to democratic ideals is no longer an abstraction that can be lined up or otherwise discounted for political gain. Putin is now proving that he is a threat to any form of world security and stability; he has no other role or purpose in the world. Although Putin’s war has so far failed to achieve its strategic goals, it has accelerated the inevitable confrontation between liberal democracy and authoritarianism and has divided much of the world. world – albeit in overly simplistic terms – into good and evil.
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This split has also affected the global order and priorities. After a period of sending mixed signals, the United States has re-emerged as the leader of liberal democracies against cruel dictatorships. This development could also create closer agreement between the US and the European Union (EU) on their policies towards China. And, in coldly pragmatic terms, the US could profit from a new repeat of the Cold War as the EU dramatically reduces its reliance on energy and trade with Russia. On this point, Germany offers a clear example. Over the past four decades, Germany has maintained a close relationship with Russia. The construction of the Nord Stream II pipeline, despite limited sanctions and US submission at the time, represented Berlin’s once favorable stance towards Russia. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine changed all this, and Germany is now on the cusp of assuming another prominent role in the EU – charting the region’s future in security matters. and military.
With Russia’s economic ties to the EU significantly curtailed, China will likely be Putin’s only viable option for economic and political support. Due to China’s growing confrontation with the US and EU, both in terms of trade as well as China’s expanding influence and territory, along with China’s large energy demand, Russia and China have looks to strengthen cooperation. Exactly how this cooperation will play out is uncertain, but it only signals a non-authoritarian world.
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But Russia has other, albeit smaller, real supporters. As the largest fossil fuel energy producers, Arab countries will benefit from rising energy prices due to late demand by the pandemic and sanctions against Russia. Those Arab countries that do not support US/EU sanctions on Russia can become a safe haven for Russian oligarchs. Not surprisingly, some of them have begun leaving their most lavish possessions in the area to try to avoid sequelae.
The prospect brings with it a great deal of gloom and doom, but we should always remember that, in great failures and challenges, equally great opportunities often lie on the side. Energy dependence, economic investment and risk aversion are some of the main obstacles to closer US-EU cooperation with Russia and China in recent times. We are witnessing the dangerous formation of an international order in which Russia and China strengthen their resolve to confront US-led alliances and intentions. But we are also seeing exploitable weaknesses in Putin’s regime. Survival instincts, shifting allegiance, and raw greed at both the individual and national levels will provide vital intelligence-gathering opportunities on the fiercest enemies of natural democracies. do. We are also witnessing the great power of ideology, liberal values and collective actions.
Regardless of the outcome of Putin’s war on Ukraine, in the months and years to come, Russia and China will wage an even more intense espionage war against the US and its allies. The good news is that liberal democracies have finally been revived from the complacency they have largely propped up since the fall of Communism. Now is the time for us to commit to comprehensive security and intelligence cooperation among our allies so that we can forge clear and coherent policies against these current and upcoming threats.
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