This includes the use of observational data and two computer simulations, one simulating the world as it is now, about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) warmer than before the spectrum of emissions. The turn of events began at the end of the 19th century and a hypothetical world in which global warming never occurred.
The finding that the likelihood of such an extreme precipitation event has increased with global warming is consistent with many other studies of individual events and broader trends. A major reason for the increase is that as the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture.
The study notes that from a meteorological perspective, a storm with a 1 in 20 chance of occurring in any given year, while uncommon, is hardly a rare event. So the researchers looked at other factors that might have contributed to the disaster’s death toll and damage.
Among these, they write, are the legacy of policies established during the apartheid era. For example, in 1958, the Durban City Council passed a measure forcing non-whites into less desirable areas and in many cases areas more prone to flooding.
The researchers also cite the rise of makeshift settlements as a result of rapid urban growth and a lack of affordable housing. About 22 percent of Durban’s population, or 800,000 people, live in such settlements, which often lack adequate services and infrastructure. During the April floods, the study found, about 4,000 of the 13,500 damaged or destroyed homes were located along riverbanks in these settlements, and most of those killed were also in these settlements. this area.
Friederike Otto, founder of World Weather Attribution and a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said: “Once again, we are seeing climate change disproportionately impact vulnerable people. How dearest.
