The Ohio State-Michigan game spread increased significantly over the weekend.
The first lines that started appearing in sportsbooks last week featured Buckeyes being liked around 4.5 to 6 points. But after Ohio State eliminated Michigan State on Saturday, the sportsbooks reopened the Buckeyes as an 8-point favorite.
However, a respected odds provider believes that number is high.
“I really like Michigan. I’ve enjoyed them all year,” Matt Metcalf, the athletic director of Las Vegas-based Circa Sports, said Sunday, hours after opening the Buckeyes at -7. “I just think this is just another game compared to the other opponents Ohio State has faced so far this year. I think if someone has a chance to keep it close, I think this could be. Is one.”
Money is poured into Buckeyes at Circa, limit bet after limit bet. For each bet on Michigan, Metcalf says there are six people in Ohio State in the first four hours with the line appearing on the board.
“It was pretty much a one-way street in Ohio State,” says Metcalf. “I just can’t get myself higher than seven, because I know I’m going to have this game like five weeks ago. After making adjustments for Ohio State chopped Michigan State and Michigan beat a lousy Maryland team , I think my number is -7, but I can see -8. I just feel like going from five to eight results in a week makes me feel uncomfortable, so I just want to hang seven and take money. “
The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas also reported much of the original action was on Buckeyes.
The number trailed Ohio State -8 in most sportsbooks on Sunday night, and Metcalf said he didn’t expect it to be much higher. “I’ve been really tall in Ohio State all year,” he added.
“I felt like I was ahead of the market in terms of them. At the moment, the market overtook me, which made me feel that we might have overcorrected a little bit. However, sometimes, the good teams hit another level at the end of the season and you see the top three or four playing at a much higher level.
“For me, this is a big game, because I respect Michigan, and if Ohio State goes in there and wins easily, I’ll probably be favored by them over Alabama.”
Notable NFL
• The underdogs once again held their own Sunday, going through (7-6 over the spread, with five full reversals). Under (92-69-1 ATS) has made up the difference in 56.8% of games this season.
• Half a dozen upsets spurred another winning Sunday for sportsbooks. “Not the best day for bettors,” said Craig Mucklow of Caesars Sportsbook. Mucklow said the book was a big hit on the Cardinals and Raven, two teams lacking their starting quarterback pairing.
• The Cardinals, who closed as under-3s, oversaw the Seahawks, behind the backup QB Colt McCoy. With the win, Arizona became the first team in the Super Bowl era to win five games in a row as underdogs in a single season, according to ESPN Stats and Information.
• Ravens’ Midfielder Lamar Jackson was ruled out due to illness shortly before Sunday’s 1pm game against the Bears. The Ravens, who had been the favorite as high as 6.5 at the start of the week, closed with a 1-point favorite and won 16-13.
• The most popular bet at PointsBet’s Illinois sportsbook is Ravens on the money line.
• A “34-31” win over the Fancy Packers made for the biggest win of the day for DraftKings and SuperBook.
John Murray, SuperBook’s chief executive officer, told ESPN Sunday: “The win is huge for us. “We also did very well against Washington (27-21 win over Panthers) and Colts (win 41-15 against Bills). Those were our three biggest demands in the morning and we got them all. .”
• Mass shuffling on a near-weekly basis has resulted in oddsmakers having mixed opinions about what really is the best team in the NFL.
“You can ask five people and get five different answers at this point,” says Murray. “Tampa Bay is probably playing with the highest numbers right now, but before the game starts today, I think the answer most people would give you is Buffalo. The Packers and Chiefs are also right there. And suddenly the Patriots look as good as any team in the AFC. It’s an unusual situation with a lot of potential playoffs going on. for a great playoffs.”
Caesars’ Mucklow says his top team in the NFC is the Cardinals, emphasizing that holding quarterbacks Kyler Murray Giving him an extra week to heal his injured ankle could be the key to reducing stretch marks.
“In the AFC, the Patriots looked really dangerous,” Muckow said.
And Jason Scott, BetMGM’s vice president of trading, said his Super Bowl pick right now is last season’s rematch between the Chiefs and the Buccaneers. “Their talent level is the best,” Scott said.
• Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, a beloved Houston furniture store owner who regularly bets big to minimize risk on promotional giveaways, returned last week. On Friday, McIngvale place two bets, total value of 2 million dollars, over New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl with 23-1 odds. He bet $1.25 million on Barstool Sportsbook and $750,000 on Score. If the Patriots, who have won five games in a row, win the Super Bowl, then McIngvale will win a net worth of $46 million from betting.
Notable college football
• With the exception of dramatic line motion, Alabama will take precedence in its 92nd straight game on Saturday, when the Crimson Tide takes on Auburn in the Iron Bowl. That’s the longest record in college football history, but will likely end next week, when Alabama faces No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Caesars Sportsbook set Bulldogs as the favorite game by 3.5 points against Alabama. If the line holds, it will be the first time the Crimson Tide has been beaten since October 3, 2015, when Alabama was the team that was one point behind Georgia. The Tide won that game 38-10.
Alabama also owns the second-longest winning streak, 72 games, which began in 2010 and lasted until the game against Georgia in 2015.
• Michigan state plus points is the most popular bet and money bet on Saturday morning at PointsBet. Sparta, who are 19.5 points behind Ohio State, lost to the Buckeyes 56-7.
• Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud emerged as a consensus favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, following his stellar performance against Michigan State. Stroud at the weekend at +250, second choice behind Alabama’s quarterback Bryce Young. Stroud is currently the favorite -220 at Caesars Sportsbook. Young is +175.
• Other notable opening lines on Circa Sports:
Mississippi at Mississippi State (-3, 63.5)
North Carolina at North Carolina State (-7, 63)
Cincinnati (-14, 58.5) in East Carolina
Georgia (-34, 54.5) at Georgia Tech
State of Florida in Florida (-2, 59.5)
Alabama (-21, 51.5) at Auburn
Texas A&M (-7, 45.5) at LSU
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (-3, 50.5)
