EXPERT TESTING – Putin was caught up in the conquest and occupation of a hostile Ukraine; the very situation he has sought to avoid over the past two decades. The West must also avoid ‘mission entanglement’ despite Ukraine’s challenge. Putin’s fate may be decided, but his departure could represent one of the most perilous periods in world history.
One of the ironies of President Putin’s current campaign in Ukraine is that he has fallen foul of the very mission he has observed closely during the American wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. All his actions since the early stages of the 1999-2000 Chechen war indicate that he has learned from the mistakes of the West. Wherever possible, he used mixed warfare; such as proxy usage and ‘frozen conflicts’ in Donbass and Georgia, cyberattacks and disinformation, and mercenaries (the Wagner Group) in Africa. Even using conventional forces, he planned quick and relatively light interventions with clear goals, such as annexing Crimea and saving Syria’s President Assad.
In planning the current Ukraine campaign, he seems to have contemplated a two-phase operation. The concentration of troops along the Ukrainian border (which he may have calculated) had two effects. The Ukrainians may have been intimidated enough to sue for peace or to overthrow the Zelensky government. Alternatively, the West could have agreed to permanently exclude Ukraine from both the EU and NATO. On the other hand, some Putin’s request (such as a return to NATO before 1997) seems to have been ruled out.
So aggression should always be his preferred outcome. However, he clearly expected an invasion very different from the one that had already occurred; maybe not a triumphant drive to Kyiv with a cheering crowd lining the streets (like Anschluss in 1938) but more reminiscent of the 3-day invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 not greeted with flowers but at least largely unchecked. Therefore, he did not need to bomb or shell Kyiv before reaching the city and forming a puppet government.
In an ideal world, Russian troops would then withdraw from Ukraine, or at least from public view, as they did shortly after and successful operation to support the Tokayev government in Kazakhstan in January. Ukraine would then become a second Belarus to be ruled by a compliant government, dependent on Russia for support but just an arm’s length from Moscow.
The worst is yet to come in Ukraine, French officials warned this week following a phone call between French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Subscriber + Member can access part of the former Ukraine and Assessment of how the bad situation could get worse by Cryptographic Briefing Specialist and former Director of the CIA’s Eurasian Center Robert Dannenberg. Upgrade your access today.
The strength of the Ukrainian opposition to the invasion and the speed and unity of the Western response must have come as a big shock to Putin. And this is the crucial moment of the creep mission. He cannot give up the invasion on his own but instead doubles down with the kind of coercive activity that suits him in Chechnya in 1999but under very different and less visible circumstances.
The might and might of the Russian military will surely conquer most of Ukraine in the next few weeks but it will be brutal and ugly. The Russian military and security services would then be engaged in overseeing an occupation. Even assuming that the anti-Lukashenko protests do not restart in Belarus (and the anti-Putin protests do not spiral out of control in Moscow), subjugating Ukraine will be a major task. With the economy faltering at home and having to return to Russia, Putin will face more risks than at any time during his 22 years in power.
But the situation is also fraught with danger for the West. The risks of the mission will be great as human rights pressures become more widespread and demand more active solidarity with the Ukrainian people. If the comments of British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss can lead Putin to warn his nuclear forces even more, a ‘not a flying area’. As Putin becomes more and more vulnerable, we can expect more nuclear threats and we can also be reminded of his chemistry and biological warfare capabilities. Even equipment and ammunition supplies for Ukrainian fighters crossing the Polish border could be presented by Putin as a Casus Belli.
A cornered and annoyed Putin could also attack NATO in the hope of provoking a response. In this context, the position of the three Baltic states is particularly exposed; especially Lithuania with its proximity to the Kaliningrad region and Estonia with the vulnerable town of Narva.
Read The Truth Putin Can’t Change by Cryptography Expert and former Member of the British Foreign Service Nick Fishwick in Cryptography Compendium only
It’s hard not to conclude that this story could be the end for Putin. But his final years can be long and dangerous. Analysts have been predicting the demise of Robert Mugabe for almost two decades and his successor is a little better. Those in power challenge Putin no more than him; Rosneft’s Igor Sechin or one of the other Siloviki (former security officers) or possibly the current head of the FSB, who are likely to lose their finances because of the collapsing economy. Even the courageous Alexei Navalny is far from a democratic leader following the Zelensky pattern.
Ultimately, the most alarming aspect of this whole incident is Putin’s psychological isolation. His public humiliation of the Director of Foreign Intelligence (SVR) on television was a chilling moment, showing his disdain not only for the weak leaders of the West but as for his own advisors. His departure from the world stage could be one of the most perilous periods in world history.
Read When the whole world turns against him, Putin will need a way out from Former National Security Adviser to Prime Minister of Canada, Richard B. Fadden in just The Cipher Brief
