As 2022 comes to an end, the world is increasingly worried about Kosovo and Serbia’s squabbles are escalating as ethnic tensions in northern Kosovo continue to flare.
Serbian army put their troops were at “the highest level of combat readiness” six days after Prime Minister Ana Brnabic declare that tensions were “on the brink of armed conflict”.
On Thursday, there were some possible signs of easing tensions with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speak that the ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo have begun to remove some barricades, but the situation remains a significant concern.
In recent months, Serbs in Kosovo have set up roadblocks in northern Kosovo, a long-standing flashpoint of ethnic tensions.
These ethnic Serbs, who make up about 6% of Kosovo’s population, have protested against what they see as discrimination by the Pristina government against them.
Leaders in Belgrade accuse the Kosovo government of plotting “terrorism against the Serbs” in the heavily Serb-populated northern Kosovo.
The Serbian government and Kosovo Serbs in northern Kosovo do not recognize Kosovo’s independence, which the country won in 2008. The Serbs in Kosovo see ethnic Albanian police as an “occupier” force. ” in northern Kosovo.
‘Rhetoric and intimidation’
Officials in Pristina allege that Serbia seeks to capitalize on tensions in northern Kosovo to justify aggression against its former southern province.
In Pristina’s view, the obstacles undermined freedom of movement in Kosovo, leading the leadership in Pristina to threaten action if the NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo, KFOR, did not dismantle remove these obstacles.
Pristina insists that Serbia is responsible for “paramilitary units,” which set up some of these barriers earlier this month.
“It is difficult for me to imagine such an armed conflict happening. However, one should worry,” Bodo Weber, senior associate at the Democratization Policy Council, told Al Jazeera.
“We see a lot of words and threats increasing, especially from the Serbian side. So far, however, what we have is three weeks of roadblocks and minor incidents of violence,” he said.
“I cannot imagine Serbia entering northern Kosovo with the army or the police, or both, because that would completely violate international law, which Belgrade has emphasized so much, and it would bring Serbian forces into direct conflict with [KFOR],” Weber added.
According to Weber, Serbia will gain nothing from making such dangerous escalations, and thinks Pristina’s threat to tear down the barricades is “unhelpful” in the context of the tense situation. .
KFOR has 4,000 troops on the ground in Kosovo. Ultimately, this NATO force constitutes the greatest deterrent against any Serbian invasion or military incursion into Kosovo.
Kosovo-based journalist Xhemajl Rexha told Al Jazeera: “The possibility of a full-blown conflict is very small, but we have said that Russia will also invade Ukraine.
“President Vucic and Prime Minister Brnabic talk about the conflict to rally support for the Serbs in Kosovo, in their ongoing efforts to thwart Kosovo’s status as a state,” he said.
Rexha added: “The official request by the Belgrade government to allow around 1,000 military and police troops to return to Kosovo is being denied by NATO – and is unthinkable.”
The broader geopolitical context
As the situation in northern Kosovo remains hot, it is important to assess how these tensions affect Russian-Western relations.
Since the late 1990s, Moscow has strongly supported Belgrade in the Kosovo profile.
Sharing the view of the Serbian government that Kosovo is a southern breakaway province belonging to the nation-state of Serbia, Moscow’s stance against the West towards Kosovo has made Russia a particularly important partner of the country. Belgrade.
Moscow has an interest in seeing that the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved. If Serbia recognizes Kosovo’s independence and normalizes relations with Pristina, then Russia will no longer matter to Serbia.
Against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict, rising levels of tension between Kosovo and Serbia serve the interests of the Kremlin.
This is mainly due to the way in which this friction – or perhaps a potentially violent conflict – will help divert Western attention and resources away from Ukraine to resolve the crisis in international relations. Kosovo-Serbian system.
“In the event of a war in the Balkans, which I think is very unlikely, Russia will increase its power,” Dilek Kutuk, PhD candidate and Balkan researcher, told Al Jazeera. .
“It will distract the attention of the West from Ukraine. Russia will amplify its argument for more legitimacy and show the world how fragile and messy the West is.”
‘Little Green Men’
Although KFOR plays a role in preventing a full-blown Serbian attack or military operation in Kosovo, some analysts warn against dismissing the possibility of the President’s “little green men”. Russian President Vladimir Putin (Russian soldiers without the insignia used to annex Ukraine’s Crimea) are deployed to Kosovo, recalling memories of Russia’s covert invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
According to Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, the Wagner Group has arrived in Serbia amid rising tensions between Belgrade and Pristina.
The entity is a force of Russian mercenaries that promote Moscow’s military interests abroad despite presenting itself as a private company.
Earlier this month, the Wagner Group announced the opening of a “centre of friendship and cooperation” in the Serbian capital with the aim of strengthening the Moscow-Belgrade partnership through soft power measures.
“Serbia did not act on its own. Vucic, who was Milosevic’s main propagandist, has close ties to Russia,” David L Phillips, director of the peacebuilding and human rights program at Columbia University, told Al Jazeera. Phillips served as a senior adviser and foreign affairs expert at the US State Department during the administrations of Bill Clinton, George Bush, and Barack Obama.
“Putin wants to authorize and dismantle Kosovo, which he considers a US project. Since Russia’s armed forces are overstretched and incompetent, Putin may turn to the Wagner Group. The Wagner Group has proven to be a reliable alternative to Moscow in the past,” he said.
However, the Wagner Group can only mount a covert invasion of Kosovo if the authorities in Belgrade allow the mercenaries to do so – a scenario that some experts suspect will happen because of them. judged that Vucic would not accept such a high risk.
Given that Serbia, the EU candidate since 2012, has deep economic ties to Germany and other Western countries, allowing the Wagner Group to conduct operations in Kosovo would be a serious gamble. full.
“Seeing a member of the far right extremists from Serbia on the fence with some Wagner insignia, and who is known to have visited [the Wagner headquarters] in Russia a month ago, clearly a provocation,” Weber said.
“But it’s a good dose. In Serbia, the far right is under complete control of the Vucic regime, and no Wagner member can enter the country without the regime’s approval. And I don’t see why Vucic should abandon the policy of balancing West and East that he has long pursued.”
