NFL playoff picture 2021 – Week 16 standings, bracket, clinching scenarios, division races and postseason outlook
Here’s something that doesn’t happen every season in the NFL playoff picture. With 32 games remaining in the season, six teams have clinched playoff spots. The eight other teams currently among the top 14 are guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win their final two games, according to scenarios researched by ESPN Stats & Information.
The Chiefs, Buccaneers, Rams and Cardinals have joined the Packers and Cowboys in the 14-team field. Monday night, the Dolphins moved into the No. 7 spot in the AFC, despite starting 1-7 this season. The Seahawks, Giants and Panthers, on the other hand, joined a relatively short list of teams that have been eliminated. All told, 24 teams are still mathematically alive to go to the playoffs and potentially win Super Bowl LVI, the second-highest total with two weeks left in a season in the past 31 years.
Suffice it to say, a ton of drama remains to play out between now and Jan. 9. What follows is a preview of our weekly snapshot of the NFL’s playoff picture, incorporating ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and a bit of our own instincts to give you a sense of the stakes. We’ve threaded playoff- and/or division-clinching scenarios for a handful of teams that will have them in Week 17.
AFC
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: Clinched
The Chiefs became the first AFC team to officially make the playoffs — as well as win their division — after Sunday’s dominating victory over the Steelers. A few months ago, some were questioning whether the league had figured out the Chiefs. Eight consecutive wins later, they’re not only in the playoffs and the AFC West champion for the sixth consecutive season but also in a pretty strong position to clinch home-field advantage for the third consecutive season. They can clinch it in Week 17 with a win at Cincinnati and a Titans loss to the Dolphins. ESPN’s FPI is giving them a 63% chance to lock it up.
Remaining schedule: at Bengals, at Broncos
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99%
FPI chances to win division: 94%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Dolphins
The Titans had lost three of their past four games before Thursday night’s comeback victory over the 49ers. The win moved them up one spot in the AFC standings, and they remained there Sunday after the Bills beat the Patriots. The Titans missed a chance to clinch the AFC South on Saturday, when the Colts beat the Cardinals, but they can clinch in Week 17 with a win over the Dolphins or a Colts loss to the Raiders. Even if they lose to the Dolphins, the Titans can clinch a playoff spot with losses by the Ravens and Chargers, or losses by the Ravens and Patriots, or losses by the Chargers and Patriots. And Tennessee remains a threat to catch the Chiefs for the top seed in the conference — ESPN’s FPI says it has a 32% chance.
Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Texans
FPI chances to make playoffs: 82%
FPI chances to win division: 73%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Patriots
The Bengals’ two-game winning streak has lifted them into the top spot in the division at a time when the Ravens have lost four consecutive games, the Browns have lost twice in a row and the Steelers have dropped four of their past six games. Although it will be a tough task, the Bengals can actually clinch the AFC North next week if they beat the Chiefs at home and the Steelers lose to the Browns. At the moment, they’re ahead of the Bills in the AFC standings based on a better conference record.
Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs, at Browns
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99%
FPI chances to win division: 89%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Colts
The Bills thumped the Patriots on Sunday to take a measure of control in the AFC East. They’re ahead of the Patriots for now based on a one-game advantage in division record (4-1 vs. 3-2). No one can clinch the division title in Week 17, which means the AFC East will go down to the final week of the season. But the Bills are now in the best spot to clinch. If they win their remaining games — and they are both very winnable — they will take the AFC East title. ESPN’s FPI loves their chances. They can also clinch a playoff spot in Week 17 with a win and a Ravens loss, or with a win and losses by the Raiders and Chargers.
Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, vs. Jets
FPI chances to make playoffs: 96%
FPI chances to win division: 6%
Current projected first-round matchup: at Bills
The Colts produced a pretty amazing victory Saturday night in Arizona, playing without most of their starting offensive line as well as star linebacker Darius Leonard, who tested positive for COVID-19 earlier in the day. The win allowed the Colts to stay alive in the AFC South race — they would have been eliminated with a loss — and strengthened their bid for a wild-card spot. ESPN’s FPI considers a playoff spot a near-lock at this point. In fact, the Colts can clinch a playoff spot with a Week 17 win over the Raiders. Indianapolis has won six of its past seven games, and with two more very winnable games on the schedule, it could enter the playoffs on quite a run.
Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, at Jaguars
FPI chances to make playoffs: 95%
FPI chances to win division: 11%
Current projected first-round matchup: at Bengals
The Patriots have lost two consecutive games after a seven-game winning streak. And while they don’t trail the Bills by much — Buffalo has a one-game advantage in the division-record tiebreaker — the Pats no longer control their own fate in the division race. No one is going to clinch in Week 17, but the Bills can clinch in Week 18 if they win their final two games. Both teams have very manageable schedules the rest of the way, and ESPN’s FPI has dropped the Patriots’ chances to win the division to 11%. The Patriots can clinch a playoff spot, though, with a win over the Jaguars and a Raiders loss next week, or a loss by the Dolphins.
Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars, at Dolphins
FPI chances to make playoffs: 21%
FPI chances to win division:
Current projected first-round matchup: at Titans
The Dolphins have pulled off one of the most stark turnarounds in NFL history. Their victory Monday night in New Orleans made them the first team ever to put together a seven-game winning streak and a seven-game losing streak in the same season. Regardless, they have pulled themselves squarely into the AFC playoff race. The good news is that they are guaranteed a playoff spot if they win their final two games. The bad news? They have two really tough opponents in those games.
Remaining schedule: at Titans, vs. Patriots
In the AFC hunt
Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
The Ravens came back to reality on Monday and were bounced back out of the AFC’s top seven. They had temporarily moved up Sunday, despite losing their fourth consecutive game, thanks to a series of tiebreakers. But with remaining games against the Rams and Steelers, they’ll now need help to make the playoffs this season. Their playoff odds per ESPN’s FPI are 31%.
Los Angeles Chargers (8-7)
The Chargers suffered a terrible loss Sunday in Houston and tumbled all the way out of the playoff picture. Their remaining schedule includes games against AFC West foes Denver and Las Vegas, and their playoff chances have dropped to 35%, per ESPN’s FPI.
Las Vegas Raiders (8-7)
Two consecutive wins, by a total of six points, have kept the Raiders on the outskirts of the playoff picture. With remaining games against the Colts and Chargers, the Raiders have a 18% chance of getting to the postseason, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)
As bad as the Steelers have been lately — they’ve lost four of their past six games — they still have a fairly direct path to the AFC North title. They’ll need to win their remaining games against the Browns and Ravens, and then have the Bengals lose their final two games. ESPN’s FPI gives that scenario a 5% chance of happening. And Pittsburgh’s overall playoff odds lie at 12%.
Cleveland Browns (7-8)
Saturday night’s loss to the Packers didn’t eliminate the Browns from the playoffs, and the truth is that they can still make it if they win their final two games against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. ESPN’s FPI estimates a 12% chance of that happening — and a 13% chance of getting into the playoffs some other way.
Denver Broncos (7-8)
The Broncos weren’t mathematically eliminated after losing to the Raiders, but ESPN’s FPI is giving them less than a 1% chance.
NFC
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: Clinched
The Packers faced a pretty wild and divergent set of circumstances on Saturday night. Had the Browns completed their comeback and left Lambeau Field with a win, the Packers would have faced the strong possibility of falling out of the top seed in the NFC. All it would have taken was the Cowboys winning a home game against Washington, an outcome that would have elevated the Cowboys to No. 1. Instead, the Packers held off the Browns and kept themselves in strong position to ensure home-field advantage in the playoffs (80% likely, per ESPN’s FPI). They are now 7-0 at Lambeau Field this season and 20-3 since coach Matt LaFleur was hired in 2019. And now Green Bay can clinch the the No. 1 overall seed next week with a win over the Vikings and a Cowboys loss to the Cardinals.
Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Lions
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: Clinched
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Eagles
The Cowboys clinched the NFC East even before stepping on the field Sunday night, thanks to an unusual strength-of-victory tiebreaker over the Eagles that was triggered by the Raiders’ victory over the Broncos. The only thing left for the Cowboys is determining their final seed. Do they have a legitimate chance to leapfrog the Packers for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs? ESPN’s FPI is giving them a 15% chance. The easiest path is winning their remaining two games and having the Packers lose to either the Vikings or Lions.
Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, at Eagles
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: 74%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. 49ers
The Rams clinched at least a wild-card spot and took control of the NFC West with Sunday’s victory over the Vikings. Even with quarterback Matthew Stafford still turning in shaky performances — he threw three interceptions Sunday — the Rams have recovered from a three-game losing streak to reel off four consecutive wins. They can clinch the NFC West in Week 17 with a win over the Ravens and a Cardinals loss to the Cowboys.
Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. 49ers
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: Clinched
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Cardinals
The Buccaneers clinched the NFC South with Sunday’s victory over the Panthers, their first division championship since 2007. (Remember: They won the Super Bowl last season as a wild-card team.) The only thing left to decide now is their seeding, and really, the only one that matters is No. 1 overall. ESPN’s FPI gives them a 4% chance to supplant the Packers, so it’s probably time to stop thinking about that one.
Remaining schedule: at Jets, vs. Panthers
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: 26%
Current projected first-round matchup: at Buccaneers
In a weird twist, the Cardinals clinched a playoff spot Sunday by virtue of a Rams victory that cemented the Cardinals’ spiral out of the top spot in the NFC West. There is still plenty of football left to be played, but the Cardinals’ three-game losing streak opened a door that they might not be able to close. The Rams are now a strong FPI favorite to win the division, and the Cardinals will need them to lose at least one game over the final two weeks to have a chance to reclaim the NFC West lead. Otherwise, they would be facing a wild-card assignment despite a 7-0 start to the season.
Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, vs. Seahawks
FPI chances to make playoffs: 78%
FPI chances to win division: Eliminated
Current projected first-round matchup: at Rams
Despite Thursday night’s loss to the Titans, the 49ers remained squarely in the NFC wild-card race. The Vikings’ loss on Sunday allowed San Francisco to remain in the No. 6 spot. Moving forward, the Niners are fortunate to have the Texans up next on the schedule. If they can’t beat Houston at home in Week 17, then they probably don’t deserve to be in the playoffs. Assuming they beat the Texans, they’ll clinch with a loss by the Saints.
Remaining schedule: vs. Texans, at Rams
FPI chances to make playoffs: 65%
FPI chances to win division: Eliminated
Current projected first-round matchup: at Cowboys
The Eagles swapped spots with the Vikings after dispatching the Giants with a second-half rally. Their ascendance into a wild-card spot should not be a surprise for those who have watched the NFC race during the second half of the season, especially given the favorable schedule Philadelphia has been dealt. The Eagles have now won three consecutive games and six of their past eight, and only one of those opponents currently has a winning record (the Chargers, who beat the Eagles 27-24 in Week 9). They can clinch a playoff spot next week with a win over Washington, along with losses by the Vikings, 49ers and Saints.
Remaining schedule: at Washington, vs. Cowboys
In the NFC hunt
Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
The Vikings had it all in front of them: Win their final three games and get into the playoffs. They stumbled Sunday in the first of those three, and ESPN’s FPI now gives them just a 17% to recover and get into the playoffs. They’ve got their work cut out for them in Week 17 at Lambeau Field, where the Packers haven’t lost this season.
Atlanta Falcons (7-8)
Why, yes, the Falcons are back on this list even if nothing about their 20-16 win over the Lions suggested they are a playoff-caliber team. But with games remaining against the Bills and Saints, and with a 4-7 conference record that puts them behind in most tiebreakers, the Falcons have just a 1% chance to clinch a wild-card spot, per ESPN’s FPI.
New Orleans Saints (7-8)
The Saints weren’t going to overtake the Eagles or 49ers even with a win Monday night, but it would have left them with a better than even chance of eventually getting back into the NFC’s top seven. ESPN’s FPI is now giving them a 33% chance, with games against the Panthers and Falcons remaining.
Washington Football Team (6-9)
Washington wasn’t eliminated from the playoffs Monday night, and with games remaining against the Giants and Eagles, its FPI chances of moving into a wild-card spot (6%) are slightly better than the Falcons’.
