The NFL’s big favorites are dropping on a weekly basis, but the betting public can’t resist and it’s proving costly.
In the past three weeks, six teams seven or more points behind have caused complete disturbances. That’s the highest level in a three-week period since 2018 (Weeks 13-15), according to ESPN Statistics and Information. However, the most popular bet at sportsbooks is usually the cash flow for a big favorite game.
This week, bettors have deposited Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Washington Soccer Team. Buccaneers closed 9.5 points lower and -450 on the money flow.
Heading into Sunday’s early kick-off at the PointsBet sportsbook, there are more bets on the Buccaneers cashflow than any other NFL market. The Tampa Bay cash flow is also the most popular parlay type. Washington won 29-19, making it the third most lucrative decision of the season for PointsBet, just behind New England Patriots covered the spread against the Buccaneers in brave catback and New York Jets‘annoyed because Cincinnati Bengals.
Led by the Football Team’s disappointment with the Bucs, the sportsbooks covered a third straight win on Sunday, though not as big as two weeks ago.
John Murray, managing director of SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN on Sunday: “I think some people have stepped back from the banner day that the underdogs had a week ago.
Notable NFL
• Under is 9-4 to the odds this week, entering Monday night’s game. On the off-season, the weaker teams are covering the spread at 58.2%.
• The Packers beat the Seahawks 17-0 on Sunday, easily becoming the 3-point favorite. After losing New Orleans Saints in Week 1, Green Bay covered nine games in a row. That’s the third-longest coverage streak in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN statistics and information. The New England Patriots in 1985 covered the spread in 14 consecutive games, and the San Diego Chargers in 1992 covered the spread in 13 consecutive games.
Packers (9-1 ATS) are the first team to score in 9 of the first 10 games of the season, since 2016 Dallas Cowboys start 9-0-1 against spread.
• The Lions and Steelers finished in a 16-16 draw Sunday creating a bitter end for the contestants in Las Vegas-based Circa Sports’ survival contest, which boasts a total guaranteed prize pool of $6 million. The Steelers were the most popular pick in the competition, chosen by the remaining 248 (36.2%) players.
Circa Sports posted on twitter: “For claimants, in our CircaSurvivor entries a winner must be selected to advance to the next competition week. All other entries are disqualified. Draw is not a win.”
• Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading at Caesars Sportsbook, said that the arbitrage Lions made one of his book’s biggest losses of the day, thanks to “two huge six-figure bets huge at +9 and +8.”
• The biggest NFL bets reported this week by Caesars Sportsbook:
– $520,000 for Patriots -1.5 (Win)
– $520,000 on Charger -2.5 (Hole)
– $520,000 on Lions +9 (Win)
– $520,000 on 49ers +4 (vs Rams on Monday night)
– $495,000 on Panthers +10.5 (Win)
• Johnny Avello, a longtime Las Vegas bookmaker currently with DraftKings, said the book got off to a “very good” start on Sunday, with the Football Team upset with the Buccaneers being a good early result. Best. Avello added that the Jaguars (+10.5) included odds in the 23-17 loss to the Colts, and the Saints (+3) in the 23-21 loss to the Titans were also good decisions for the house.
“They’re on the money line of the Vikings and Eagles, and the packers [-3] in the afternoon, but we’ll be fine,” Avello told ESPN in a message on Sunday.
The Vikings and Eagles each caused complete disturbances, aside from Green Bay’s win over Seattle.
The busiest road for bookies
The Super Bowl and March Madness are big events for sportsbooks in Las Vegas, but for those in the back room, Saturdays in November are full of basketball and college football, Very stressful.
“Today was probably the busiest I’ve been to,” Rex Beyer, SuperBook’s risk supervisor in Las Vegas who has been betting nationally and internationally for more than a decade, told ESPN in a message. text on Saturday night. “It was the first Saturday I worked in a crossover season where we booked all the regular and extra games in both college football and the college round, including the first and second half. .”
There are more than 100 college football and basketball games combined on Saturday, dozens of games taking place at the same time.
There are more sensitive data entries on a day like Saturday than on any other day of the year for risk custodians and governance moderators, said Murray, SuperBook’s chief executive officer.
“They’re tracking start times, halftime lanes, bet approvals, line movement in more events than at any other time of the year,” Murray said. “The Super Bowl is like a walk in the park compared to a day like yesterday if you were in one of those locations.”
To make things more difficult, with so much continuous data entry going on, mistakes will be made and there are always bettors looking to capitalize on.
“If you make a mistake, someone will pounce on it,” says Murray. “No truly wise person would capitalize on a number of bad previous posts about an event because they value [sportsbook] more accounts than winning a single bet. But scumbags, and those who don’t know what they’re doing, will gladly take advantage of such a bug. It’s the job of the people in the back to make sure those things are as limited as possible in terms of people. “
Notable college football
• Circa Sports, the Las Vegas-based sportsbook responsible for some of the first weekly college football lines in the US market, opened Ohio State as one of 18 more favorites than Michigan State. .
The money was initially in the Buckeyes, prompting Circa sports magazine director Matt Metcalf to quickly shift the spread to Ohio State -20 in the first hours of posting the opening line.
“We’ve seen a few bets [on Ohio State] Metcalf said on Sunday afternoon. “For me, they are one of the strongest teams we have always had. It doesn’t matter who they’re playing with. We have a bunch of players who just love to bet on Ohio State, and the final scenario I want to find myself in on Saturday is that the wise and the public are all on the same side, so I end up being on the same page. need the same game more. than I want. I don’t think anyone is going to go to Ohio State right now. They just look so strong when attacking. “
• Metcalf says he will have Georgia as the 4-point favorite against Alabama on neutral ground, if the two powerhouses meet this week. “I would consider Alabama a 2 or 3 point favorite against Ohio State.”
Michigan is fourth in Metcalf’s power rating, followed by Wisconsin and Oklahoma.
“If we hung a line in Ohio State-Michigan right now, I think I would have it around. [Buckeyes] -6,” Metcalf added.
Werewolves attacked Ohio State on November 27.
• Opening difference and total score via Circa Sports:
Michigan State at Ohio State -18, 72.5
Wake Forest at Clemson -5, 56.5
State of Iowa at Oklahoma -6, 58.5
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame -18, 56 years old
SMU in Cincinnati -13, 65.5
Nebraska at Wisconsin -10, 40.5
Arkansas at Alabama -22, 56.5
UCLA -3, 70.5 at USC
Oregon in Utah -3, 58.5
• Underdogs versus FBS have won 27.1% of their games this season, the highest number in a single season in the past 15 years, according to ESPN Stats and Information.
What are the odds?
• 27-1: Kansas odds to beat Texas right at Circa Sports. The Jayhawks have lost 100 straight games as a team by at least 24 points, by far the worst streak in FBS, according to ESPN Stats and Information. Texas has won 79 straight games by at least 24 points, the second-longest streak entering Saturday’s game. Both sequences ended when the Jayhawks, who were 31 points behind, upset the Longhorns with a 59-58 scoreline in extra time.
Texas is the third 30-point team to lose this season. Last season, no team lost 30 points and only one team lost 30 points in the previous three seasons. Wisconsin was disappointed against Illinois in 2019.
• 30-1: March odds for Shohei Ohtani winning the US Championship Series MVP, when a bettor with a sportsbook William Hill of Nevada bets $30,000 on the Los Angeles Angels pitching quarterback . Ohtani is considered the favorite to win the award, which will be announced on Thursday. If he wins, the bettor wins a net $900,000.
• 10-1: Opening odds at Caesars Sportsbook that the Lions will be 0-17 this season. The odds close at +600 this week, before the Lions draw with the Steelers and cash out any bets for “no”.
