Hong Kong
CNN
—
In the years before Covid, China was the world’s most important source of international tourists. Its 155 million tourists spent more than a quarter of a trillion dollars off borders in 2019.
That generosity has declined rapidly over the past three years as the country essentially closed its borders. But, like China Preparing to reopen On Sunday, millions of holidaymakers were poised to return to the world stage, stoking hopes of a recovery in the global hospitality industry.
According to analysts, while international tourism may not immediately return to pre-pandemic levels, companies, industries and countries that depend on Chinese tourists will see strong growth next year. 2023.
According to Steve Saxon, a partner at McKinsey’s Shenzhen office, China took an average of about 12 million airline passengers a month in 2019, but those numbers have dropped 95% in the Covid years. He predicts that this number will recover to about 6 million a month in the summer, fueled by the pent-up passion for travel among young, wealthy Chinese like Emmy Lu, who works for a advertising agency in Beijing.
“I’m very happy [about the reopening]! Lu told CNN. “Because of the pandemic, I was only able to roam the country for the past few years. Really hard.”
“It’s just that I was stuck in the water for a while. I’m really looking forward to the lifting of restrictions so I can go somewhere happy! The 30-year-old said and added that she most wanted to visit Japan and Europe.
As China announced last month that it will no longer require domestic travelers to quarantine starting January 8, including residents returning from overseas trips, Search for international flights and accommodation instantly hit a three-year high on Trip.com
(TCOM).
Bookings for overseas travel during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, which falls between January 21 and 27 this year, have increased by 540% from a year ago, according to data from China travel website. Average spend per booking has increased by 32%.
The top destinations are in the Asia Pacific region, which includes Australia, Thailand, Japan and Hong Kong. The United States and the United Kingdom are also in the top 10.
“The rapid buildup in… [bank] Alex Loo, macro strategist at TD Securities, added that frequent lockdowns could lead to restrictions on household spending.
There could be “revenge spending” by Chinese consumers, he said, mirroring what happened in many developed markets when they reopened early last year.
That’s good news for many economies battered by the pandemic.
“We estimate that Hong Kong, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore will benefit the most if China’s tourism service imports return to 2019 levels,” Goldman Sachs analysts said.
Hong Kong — the most visited city in the world with just under 56 million visits They said in 2019 most of them were from mainland China – which could see the country’s GDP grow by an estimated 7.6% as exports and tourism income increase. Thailand’s GDP could grow by 2.9%, while Singapore’s will grow by 1.2%.
Elsewhere in the world, Cambodia, Mauritius, Malaysia, Taiwan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, South Korea and the Philippines could also benefit from a return of Chinese tourists, according to research by Capital Economics.
Hong Kong has suffered especially deeply from the closure of its border with mainland China. The city’s mainstay industries, tourism and real estate, have been hit hard. The Financial Center expects GDP to shrink 3.2% in 2022.
The city government announced on Thursday that up to 60,000 people will be allowed to cross the border daily every afternoon, starting on Sunday.
Others Tourism-dependent Southeast Asian nations have kept relatively relaxed entry regulations for Chinese tourists, despite the record-breaking Covid-19 outbreak that has swept through China in recent weeks . These include Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines.
“This is one of the opportunities where we can accelerate the economic recovery,” Thailand’s health minister said this week.
New Zealand has also waived testing requirements for Chinese visitors, which were the country’s second-biggest source of tourism income before the pandemic.
But other governments are more cautious. So far, nearly a dozen countries, including the United States, Germany, France, Canada, Japan, Australia and South Korea, have mandated testing.
The European Union on Wednesday “strongly encouraged” its member states to require a negative Covid test for travelers from China prior to arrival.
Saxon, McKinsey’s head of travel in Asia, said there was clearly “conflict” between tourism regulators and political and health officials in some countries.
Airlines and airports have rejected EU recommendations on testing requirements.
The International Air Transport Association, the airline industry’s global lobby group, together with the airports represented by ACI Europe as well as Airlines for Europe, has issued Joint statement on Thursday, calling the EU move “regrettable” and “an immediate response”.
But they welcome additional recommendations to test wastewater as a way to identify new variants of the disease, says it should be an alternative to passenger screening.
Aside from the restrictions, it will take time for international travel to fully recover as many Chinese have to renew their passports and reapply for visas, according to analysts.
Lu from Beijing said she is still reviewing her travel plans, considering the different testing requirements and high airfares.
“Restrictions are normal, because everyone wants to protect the people in their country,” she said. “I will wait and see if some policies are eased.”
Liu Chaonan, 24, of Shenzhen, said she originally wanted to go to the Philippines to celebrate the Lunar New Year, but didn’t have time to apply for a visa. So she turned to Thailand, where e-licensing is quick and easy.
“Time is running out and I need to leave in about 10 days. People can choose some visa-friendly places and countries to travel to,” she said, adding that she plans to learn scuba diving and wants to buy cosmetics. Her total budget for the trip could exceed 10,000 yuan ($1,460).
Saxon said he expects China’s outbound international tourism to fully recover by the end of the year.
“In general, individuals are pragmatic and countries will welcome Chinese tourists due to their ability to spend,” he said, adding that countries could quickly lift restrictions. limited as the Covid situation improves in China.
“It will take time for international travel to kick in, but it will quickly return when that happens.”
