Russia attacked Ukrainian ports for the fourth night in a row on Friday, attacked the granaries of Odesa and flaunted its navy across the Black Sea in a profound confrontation that threatens a vital part of the global food supply.
The Kremlin this week withdraw from an old agreement allowed food vessels from Ukrainian ports to break through the Russian blockade, and to begin concentrated bombardment of facilities used to transport grain and cooking oil across the Black Sea. The Russian military warned that any ships trying to approach Ukraine would be considered hostile and that its countries “will be seen as participating in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kiev regime”.
On Friday, Russia conducted naval exercises in the northwestern Black Sea – the part close to the coast that Ukraine still holds – supporting the suggestion that it could capture or destroy cargo ships of countries not participating in the fighting. The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that a missile ship fired an anti-ship cruise missile and destroyed a “dummy target” ship, while Black Sea Fleet ships and aircraft “practice to isolate a temporarily closed area” and conduct a drill “to capture a fake infiltration vessel.”
Missile attacks at dawn destroyed 100 tons of peas and 20 tons of barley at the port in Odesa, based on Oleg Kiper, head of the regional military administration. That comes two days after an attack on a port just outside Odesa destroyed 60,000 tonnes of grain loaded onto ships, the government said – enough to feed more than 270,000 people for a year. according to the World Food Program.
“The new wave of attacks on Ukrainian ports threatens to have far-reaching impacts on global food security, especially in developing countries,” Rosemary DiCarlo, UN deputy secretary-general, said at an emergency Security Council meeting on Friday. “Moreover, as we have repeatedly stated, attacks on civilian infrastructure may constitute a violation of international law.”
The UN’s humanitarian director, Martin Griffiths, warned the council that even escalating rhetoric threatens to increase food prices and food instability globally. Prices have risen this week, but not as strongly as when the war began, and economists say the impact could be severe but not as severe as global supply is more abundant. Ukraine has boosted road exports, but not nearly enough to make up for the loss of transportation.
Russia will be ready to extend the agreement, said Russia’s representative at the United Nations meeting, but only if other countries lift their penalties for invading Ukraine 17 months ago – conditions are unlikely to be met.
On Friday, Russia’s central bank signaled concerns about the economy, especially inflation, as it raised its key interest rate by one percentage point, to 8.5% – a much larger increase than analysts had expected. The central bank forecasts relatively good economic growth at 2.5% this year, after falling at a similar pace last year. But the recovery has been fueled by the government pumping money into the economy with sharply higher military spending, including payments to soldiers and their families, and social programs like mortgage subsidies.
Russians have more money to spend but not enough to spend, fueling inflation that the central bank predicts will hit 5 to 6.5% this year. Sanctions have made it harder for businesses to import products, including production equipment, and the forced or flight out of a country of hundreds of thousands of people has made it harder to hire workers.
Ukraine and Russia have long produced a large portion of the global food supply — before the war they accounted for about a quarter of the world’s wheat and barley exports and a large share of edible oils, especially sunflower oil, and Russia was the largest supplier of fertilizers. Russia’s blockade of Ukraine and Western sanctions on Russia caused its exports to plummet early last year, exacerbating shortages and raising prices around the world, and famine threatens in some areas, especially in East Africa.
The Black Sea Grains Initiative, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in July 2022, allowed food vessels to leave Ukrainian ports and introduced terms allowing Russian agricultural exports. But the Kremlin has complained that the factors that benefit Russia are inadequate or not fully respected, reducing exports and forcing Russian producers to sell to the world at below-market prices – in favor of European competitors.
Over the months, Moscow has issued a series of demands to resume the grain initiative: Allow Russia’s state-owned agricultural bank to rejoin. SWIFT messaging system allow international transactions; ensuring that foreign shipping and insurance companies can do business with Russian agricultural exporters without violating sanctions; allow Russia to continue importing spare parts for agricultural equipment; end sanctions against Russian fertilizer manufacturers and their executives; and restore a Russian ammonia pipeline to Odesa.
Russia’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyanskiy, said at a Security Council meeting on Friday that there must be “a practical lifting of sanctions, not a theoretical one”, citing several similar demands. “As soon as all these conditions are met, we will immediately reach an agreement.”
But Russia’s actions go beyond simply halting the grain deal, threatening other shipping in the Black Sea and damaging Ukraine’s ability to ship food by sea for the foreseeable future, launching missile after wave of missiles and drone strikes on port facilities this week. Russian rocket and artillery attacks on other parts of the country overnight killed eight people, Ukrainian officials said.
Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum on Friday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said, “Russia by weaponizing food is doing something really unscrupulous.”
In Moscow, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin told reporters at a news conference that the grain deal would not be reinstated unless Russia’s demands were met, and in the meantime Russia could stop and inspect civilian ships in the Black Sea for military cargo.
On Thursday, the White House warned that Moscow may be preparing a wrong flag operation attacked civilian ships and blamed Ukraine. The threats have stalled maritime traffic in the area. Tracking data shows that ships heading to the Black Sea are docked at ports in Istanbul, waiting to see if an agreement can be reached to resume grain shipments.
Mr. Vershinin said no talks have been conducted yet, but President Vladimir V. Putin and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey are expected to discuss the matter soon.
He accused Ukraine of abusing the safe corridor for grain ships to launch drones to attack the naval base in Russian-occupied Crimea and the bridge connecting Crimea with Russia. Ukraine has denied using the corridor for military purposes.
The Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington, wrote in a Review published Thursday night that “The Kremlin may consider the Black Sea Grains Initiative as one of its few remaining avenues of leverage against the West.” The newspaper added that Russia is “trying to create a sense of urgency by launching increased attacks on Ukraine’s ports and grain infrastructure, and threatening to attack civilian ships.”
Russia has been unsettled since last month’s failed mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group against the military leadership, which has led to the sacking of several top commanders and questions about what is seen as Putin’s Iron Fist.
“For many Russians watching this, accustomed to the image of Putin as the arbiter of orders, the question is, ‘The Emperor has no clothes?’” CIA director, William J. Burns, told the Aspen Security Forum on Friday, in his most widely publicized commentary on the mutiny. “Or, at least, ‘Why did he take so long to get dressed?’”
Mr. Burns said he expected Putin to eventually punish the Wagner leader, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, who remained free and unharmed.
Igor Girkin, an extreme nationalist commentator and former war advocate critical of the way the invasion was conducted, was arrested on Friday, signaling that a form of public dissent that the government has allowed may no longer be allowed. Prosecutors accused him of making public calls to engage in extremist activities, which carries a penalty of up to five years in prison and a request for a Moscow court to detain him before trial.
Belarus, Russia’s closest ally, has received several Wagner fighter jets in the past few weeks and it is training Belarusian special operations troops, the Belarusian government said on Thursday. The training site is just three miles from Poland, a NATO member with deep distrust of both Belarus and Russia.
In response, Poland said on Friday that it would move its military forces closer to the border with Belarus. In contrast, Putin lashed out at Poland, saying Russia would respond to “aggression” against Belarus “with all means at our disposal.”
Ivan Nechepurenko reporting from Tbilisi, Georgia, Victoria Kim from Seoul and Farnaz Fassihi And Richard Pérez-Peña from New York. Report contributed by Anatoly Kurmanaev from Berlin; Neil MacFarquhar, Gaya Gupta And James C. McKinley Jr. from New York; Eric Schmitt, David E. Sanger And Julian E. Barnes from Aspen, Colorado; Shashank in Bengali from London and Erin Mendell from Seoul.
