The land grab in the Donbas region could be used by Russia to justify the war and claim victory, analysts say.
Leon Klein | Anadolu Agency | beautiful pictures
Political analysts told CNBC that Russia will want some victory before pulling back from the war in Ukraine — and escalation in the war is still possible at this point.
They said, even if Moscow is honest about its commitment to reduce military activity near Kyiv, it is likely to regroup and focus on the Donbas region, where it has made some progress.
Donbas is a breakaway region in eastern Ukraine that includes two pro-Russian republics: Donetsk and Luhansk. After Russia illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, Russian-backed separatists in the region seceded from the Ukrainian government.
“The Russians are stronger in the east and may want to redeploy forces in the east to achieve victory because right now, the Ukrainians [and] William Courtney, a senior fellow at Rand Corporation, said that the international community sees Russia as a loser rather than a winner.
Russia can expect a quick victory when it invades Ukraine on February 24. Instead, it has met fierce resistance from Ukraine, and Moscow is still struggling to take its place after more than a year. fighting month.
Moscow’s announcement of a reduction in military activity around the Ukrainian capital has been met with skepticism.
Christopher Miller from Tufts University told CNBC that he considers Russia’s pledge to reduce the size of its forces from Kyiv merely “a statement of military reality” and “distracts from the reality that the fighting is real.” going on in the east.
“The Ukrainians have pushed them back somewhat, but most of the fighting in the next few weeks will be, I think, not in Kyiv, but in the Donbas and eastern Ukraine,” he said on Wednesday.
“Russia is in the final stages of the siege of Mariupol on the coast of the Donbas and is generally trying to grab a large chunk of territory from Ukrainian forces,” said Miller, assistant professor of international history at Tufts. “.
“They are trying to win enough territory to succeed at home and justify the cost of this war,” he told “Squawk Box Asia,” he told Squawk Box Asia, adding that This cost is “much higher” than anyone in the Russian government or the Russian people. expected.
Matthew Sussex, an assistant professor at Griffith University, echoed a similar sentiment.
He told CNBC on Thursday that there was a “very good chance of escalation” because Putin needed a win before agreeing to a deal with Ukraine.
Gaining control over Ukraine, he said, would also strengthen Putin’s hand at the negotiating table.
Sussex exclusively told CNBC last week that it makes perfect sense for him to get as much Ukrainian territory as he can. “Then he can sell whatever he gets domestically and internationally as a big win, or at least a partial win,” he said.
Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Russia and Ukraine prepare to resume negotiations on Fridayaccording to a member of the Ukrainian delegation.
Sussex said he saw the talks between the two sides as a “stalling tactic to allow time for Russian forces to regroup and take control.”
Some analysts say negotiations could eventually turn serious, but not at this point.
“It’s going to take weeks and months until the Russians are really ready to engage in real negotiations,” said Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasian Center.
“For now, it seems both sides are content to continue the war because Ukraine doesn’t want to give in and Russia isn’t ready to give up just yet,” said Miller of Tufts University.
He said the two sides were closer than before, but several key issues remained unresolved, including which country would control the Donbas.
“I think it will be decided partly on the battlefield but also partly through negotiations, and I am hesitant to say that we are getting closer to a solution when the big question about it is,” Miller said. This territory remains unanswered.
