Publicly, the US and China have recently cooled their relationship. Finance Minister Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have both visited Beijing in recent weeks in part to improve communications between the two countries. “President Biden and I do not view the relationship between the United States and China in terms of great power conflict.” Yellen said at the end of her trip.
But the basic fact remains the same: the US and China remain competitors for global domination. The two countries are great powers, and they often clash.
Take a look at what has happened since Yellen returned home on Sunday:
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US officials announced that prior to Blinken’s trip last month, the hackers appeared to have links to the Chinese government. break into email accounts by top U.S. officials, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, a prominent critic of China’s policies. The spy balloon that flew over the US earlier this year might have gotten more attention, but hacking high-profile email accounts seems more belligerent.
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Biden administration officials appear to be about to announce rules restricting American companies from investing in many advanced Chinese technology companies. Advocates say the rules are intended to prevent Americans from funding threats to US national security. Biden’s aides have postponed announcing the policy, in part to avoid disrupting recent diplomacy. (Here’s a Times story with more details.)
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The United States continues to enforce a series of strict restrictions aimed at hampering China’s ability to manufacture advanced semiconductors. The Biden administration introduced the restrictions on October 7. “If you had told me about these rules five years ago, I would have told you it was an act of war — we would have to go to war. ,” said CJ Muse, a semiconductor expert at Evercore ISI, an investment advisory firm.
Dead point
Muse’s quote comes from a new article in the Times Magazine by Alex Palmerand I recommend you take the time to read it this weekend. The article explains how the Biden administration is trying to block China’s access to advanced semiconductors, which are crucial to many digital technologies. By doing so, the United States hopes to slow down China’s efforts to build advanced weapons, develop artificial intelligence, and spy on its own citizens as well as people in other countries. .
The United States believes it can succeed, Alex writes, because the semiconductor industry is “a web of interdependence, spanning the planet in highly specialized regions and companies, the feats of which are it is made possible by supply chains of exceptional length and complexity.” The most advanced operations tend to be located in the United States or its allies, such as Japan, the Netherlands and Taiwan — three governments that signed off on the restrictions October 7.
“The whole industry can only function with US input,” said Chris Miller, a professor at Tufts University. “At every facility closest to the most technologically advanced, there are U.S. tools, U.S. design software, and U.S. intellectual property throughout the process.” (Miller recently appeared on Ezra Klein’s podcast to talk about the global importance of semiconductors.)
So far, the semiconductor restrictions appear to be working, analysts say. China is struggling to get many of the cutting-edge semiconductors it needs and is trying to build an industry at home instead. In the end, it will probably succeed in doing so. By then, however, the United States and its allies hope to move further forward.
Promises not fulfilled
The October 7 rules are an indication of how US policy towards China has changed. For decades, presidents of both parties have vowed that economic engagement would benefit both China and the United States. .
Only some of those promises came true.
China has become richer. Its rise includes arguably the fastest poverty reduction in human history, improving the material living conditions of hundreds of millions of people. Many American investors and corporate executives also thrived as their companies made more profits by moving parts of their supply chains to China and selling goods in China.
But China has become less democratic, not more, in the process. Its rise also hurts millions of American workers more than it helps them. An academic study using the phrase “China Shock” to describe the devastating impact on factory jobs and wages in many US communities over the past two decades. People in these same places have become more likely vote for extreme political candidatesthe researchers found in a follow-up study.
Now, U.S. policymakers of both parties often see China as the adversary it has become. It’s true that there are risks to this new approach — including a real, possibly devastating war. And China and the US will need to continue to cooperate on some issues, especially climate change, even as they compete on many others.
By trying to keep the lines of communication open, Blinken, Yellen and their counterparts in Beijing can reduce the risk of misunderstandings and disasters. But they cannot change the fact that China and the US are competitors, not allies. The two nations are indeed engaged in a great power struggle.
What’s next: John Kerry, Biden’s climate envoy, will travel to China on Sunday to restart climate talks between the two nations, the world’s two biggest polluters. Congressional Republicans accuse Kerry at a hearing yesterday soft on China.
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