Prior to the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Russian forces controlled about 30% of the region of eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas. Russia has taken over the territory – with the help of local separatist forces – as part of a low-level regular war with Ukraine that began in 2014.
Today, Russia controls nearly 75% of the Donbas. Some of Russia’s Most Recent Profits Have Arrived around Sievierodonetsk.
Together, those two stats – 30% and 75% – give a useful summary of the fight.
Yes, the war has gotten much worse for Russia more than most expected: Instead of capturing Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, within days, the Russian army had to back down and narrow its target to the Donbas, a long-disputed border region. But Russia is still making progress there. It may not yet fulfill its more limited goal of dominating the Donbas. And Vladimir Putin is betting that he will show more patience than Ukraine’s Western allies.
The Today Times has some interesting news about Ukraine. Helene Cooper looking at Military mistakes that Russia is repeatingand the Carlotta Gall . records Ukrainians choose to stay in their home in Donbas. Three photographers – Lynsey Addario, Finbarr O’Reilly and Ivor Prickett – published images and stories from the front lines.
In the Opinion section, President Biden published an essay explaining that his administration will continue to send weapons to Ukraine but not troops. In the essay, he stated that the US would send longer-range missiles to Ukraine than it had in the past.
Along with those sections, we use today’s newsletter to give you an overview of the war.
A Russian pincer
The big question over the next few weeks – according to our colleague Julian Barnes, who is in charge of US intelligence agencies – will be whether Russia will be able to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Donbas. If Russia does, Ukraine’s military could be cut off from the rest of the country and suffer heavy losses. At that time, Russia could take control of almost all of Donbas.
“Intelligence officials have repeatedly said, both publicly and privately, that this next phase will be critical in setting the timeline for the war in the coming months,” Julian said. “It will determine whether we are in something of a near stalemate or if one side has the upper hand.”
During the first weeks of the war, Russia managed to move quickly and capture much territory. Its army prove incapable to do so, opposed by the Ukrainian military, with the help of weapons provided by the US, EU and other allies. In the current phase of the war, Russia has emphasized a strategy from other recent wars, in Syria and Chechnya: using rockets and other heavy artillery to bombard cities and towns and finally take them.
As Anton Troianovski, The Times’ Moscow bureau chief, puts it: “The war has clearly gone on for much longer than anyone anticipated, including the Russians. And the Russians, after those initial failures, have adapted and returned to the traditional way of war.”
The bombardment appears to have inflicted significant casualties on Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky recently estimated that between 50 and 100 Ukrainian soldiers were killed. Russia has also captured several economically significant areas, including ports and wheat fields.
Putin has adopted a strategy that Russia has used for most of its history, which combines its vast resources with high casualty tolerance to produce slow gains in wartime. In this war, Putin believes that Ukraine’s Western allies grew tired of the war long before he felt much pressure to do so. “He gambled with the West to get tired and distracted,” says Anton.
However, Putin faces many of the same problems that undermined the original Russian invasion, such as Helene Cooper’s story explained. Its military has proven to be an inefficient top-down organization in which field commanders often have to wait for senior orders. Much of Russia’s equipment is outdated and many of its soldiers are not properly trained. They also didn’t expect to engage in a full-scale war, and the deaths of thousands of their comrades had further weakened their morale.
“The Russians are trying to subjugate a huge country with a well-organized army fighting on its own turf,” says Helene. “It’s a very high order for an army that you have soldiers on the ground with no clue why they’re in Ukraine.”
Barrier of peace
Ultimately, many analysts believe that Russia’s military problems will make it very difficult for Putin to control large swaths of Ukraine for months or years. However, Donbas is where he is most likely to find some success.
“The overall military balance in this war remains tilted in Ukraine’s favor, given its manpower readiness and access to broad Western military support,” said Michael Kofman, Director. Russian Studies at CNA, a research group, wrote recently. “That will show more over time. But the local balance in Donbas during this period is a different story.”
The most likely medium-term scenario is that Russia will control a large amount of Donbas and Putin will patiently and brutally try to expand Russia’s capital holdings. He – as well as Ukraine and its allies – will then need to decide whether any truce can be implemented.
“I will not pressure the Ukrainian government – whether private or public – to make any territorial concessions,” Biden wrote. in his Times essay.
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