Russian forces have leveled dozens of towns and cities in Ukraine over the past 26 months – killing thousands of civilians, forcing millions from their homes and leaving a trail of devastation beyond measure.
Sievierodonetsk. Bakhmut. Avdiivka. Cities and towns little known to the world became scorched battlefields, where two armies clashed for months to bloody consequences before the Russians finally prevailed.
Now, Russian forces have set their sights on Chasiv Yar, a hilltop fortress town in eastern Ukraine. The operation is part of Russia's intensified effort to achieve its most significant operational advance since the first summer of the 2022 war.
Chasiv Yar is only about five square miles, but if the Russians can capture it they will be in control. high altitude command that would allow them to directly target the main concentration of cities still under Kyiv's control in the Donetsk region. This includes the headquarters of the Eastern Command of Ukraine in Kramatorsk.
It would also bring Russian troops within about 10 miles of Kostiantynivka, the main supply point for Ukrainian forces on much of the eastern front.
Serhiy Hrabsky, a military analyst and former Ukrainian army colonel, said Chasiv Yar is “the key” that “will open the gates for comprehensive and long-term battles.”
While Ukraine hopes new military support from the United States will allow it to begin stabilizing its fraying defenses, its soldiers are running short on everything – from artillery shells to tank ammunition to air defense systems and armored vehicles.
It could take weeks for significant material flows to change the dynamic on the front, and Ukrainian officials have warned that the Kremlin will try to exploit this opportunity to target Ukrainian defenses. Ukraine wherever possible.
According to the Ukrainian military, just this week, Russian forces exploited a gap in Ukrainian defenses outside Avdiivka to advance about two miles into the village of Ocheretyne, 30 miles south of Chasiv Yar.
President Volodymyr Zelensky says he believes that Russia was planning to capture Chasiv Yar on May 9 – a national holiday in Russia commemorating the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany.
As Russia takes aim at Chasiv Yar, here's a look at how the battle unfolded, where the fighting took place and why the loss of the town will pose new challenges for Ukraine.
How is the situation in Chasiv Yar?
During a visit to Chasiv Yar a year ago, when the battle for Bakhmut reached its climax bloody outcome just six miles east, the once-rural town in the heart of the eastern Donbas region has largely been transformed into a military garrison.
Most of the roughly 13,000 residents fled as shelling rocked empty apartment buildings and craters littered the tree-lined streets.
After Bakhmut fell to Russia, Ukraine used Chasiv Yar to fire directly at Russian forces from across the vast plains surrounding it. They also used the town as a staging point for attacks to retake several villages around Bakhmut.
But as American assistance slowed and then largely stopped this year, the Russians regained much of what they had lost around Bakhmut and began crossing the mined plains between Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar in one bloody attack after another.
According to both sides, the Russians established a foothold in the forest belt near the eastern edge of the city.
They are also trying to attack Ukrainian forces by attacking through the villages of Bohdanivka in the north and Ivanivske in the south, said Nazar Voloshyn, Ukrainian military spokesman in the region.
He said some 20,000 to 25,000 Russian soldiers were participating in the offensive and that attacks continued “around the clock.”
“We responded with aircraft,” said Private Oksana, a combat drone operator in Chasiv Yar, who was reached by phone and used only his first name in accordance with military protocol. unmanned FPV, but that is not enough. She was referring to the first-person drones that Ukraine has increasingly relied on to slow Russia's advance as its shortage of artillery shells worsens.
“The tactical situation is quite dynamic, challenging and constantly changing,” Mr. Voloshyn, the military spokesman, said in response to written questions. However, he said Ukraine's military was being reinforced and defenses remained strong.
Despite the relentless attacks, Ukraine's defense forces have some advantages, said Mr. Hrabsky, the military analyst.
The Donbas Canal, which cuts a road that separates a small settlement on the eastern edge of town from the rest of Chasiv Yar, adds a natural barrier that could slow the Russian advance. And Mr. Hrabsky said the Ukrainians had had years to build fortifications in and around the town.
How has Russia used its air power?
Russia used its growing superiority in the air to smashing nearly every structure still standing into rubble and destroying those fortifications.
In recent months, as Ukraine's air defenses have degraded, Russian pilots have become increasingly daring in their sorties near the front, and Moscow is using its tactical aviation advantage to create produce devastating effects.
British military intelligence agency said this week that the “coordinated aerial bombardment” of Chasiv Yar was “a tactic repeated from Operation Avdiivka,” in which Russian warplanes opened the way for ground attacks and the loss of defender of the Ukrainian citadel in February.
The Ukrainian Air Force said Russian planes dropped up to two dozen bombs containing more than 1,000 pounds of explosives on Chasiv Yar every day.
“Yesterday alone, 100 artillery and mortar shelling were recorded in this direction, twice as many as the previous day,” Mr. Voloshyn said on Tuesday.
Colonel Mart Vendla, deputy commander of the Estonian Defense Forces Command, said this week that Ukraine's loss of Avdiivka and Russian troops' entry into Chasiv Yar “is clearly related to a lack of ammunition and preparations.” of the Russian side at the risk of using tactical air power again. ”
What will happen if Chasiv Yar falls?
Mr. Hrabsky said that it is impossible to predict how the battle will unfold.
While Ukraine is no match for Russia's firepower and Moscow remains willing to throw countless troops into the fight, the knowledge that Ukrainian commanders will have more supplies on the way could allow them to commit troops in reserve and fight back. fierce attack again.
The stakes are high for both sides.
The cities beyond Chasiv Yar were not only important defensive fortresses. It is home to hundreds of thousands of civilians, many of whom work in industries that play a key role in Ukraine's domestic arms production.
If Chasiv Yar falls, some of those population centers will be within range of Russian artillery. Russia has proven time And again what it can do when a settlement is in the crosshairs of the big guns – destroy local industries, devastate vital infrastructure and render once peaceful towns irrelevant suitable for human life.
Control of Chasiv Yar would also put Kostiantynivka, the main supply node for Ukrainian forces in the east, just a few miles away, within striking distance of Russian forces.
The railway line in Kostiantynivka is “Ukraine's supply and support backbone” in the east, Mr. Hrabsky said. This year, the Russians attacked the main station with missiles but the trains were still running.
Sergei K. Shoigu, Russia's defense minister, said Tuesday that Russia will step up attacks against Ukrainian logistics centers and storage facilities as the country tries to slow the delivery of military aid the importance of the West to the front.
But even if Chasiv Yar falls, military analysts say, the battles that follow will likely be long and brutal, going on for months.
“We cannot give up,” Private Oksana said, “for those who sacrificed their lives to defend our land.”
Liubov Sholudko contributed reporting.
