- NHTSA has announced that it will push the required average fuel economy figure to 49 mpg by 2029, but that doesn’t mean your future new car will do anywhere near that number.
- According to NHTSA, the rule change will result in a price increase for new 2029 vehicles by around $960, but overall fuel economy from improved fuel economy will be $1280 (of course. , will vary, depending on the vehicle type). The final picture: new cars could cost around $320 less to buy and own by the end of the decade.
- Another way to think about it, as Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg describes it, is that if you were filling up with gas four times a month today, you would only have to stop at a gas station three times a month. month if you are driving one. of these more effective means.
No wonder there was some confusion after higher fuel economy standards announced by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) earlier this month. The improved performance requirements are looking to result in a fleet-wide average for new cars and light trucks of 49 mph in the 2026 model year. That doesn’t explain the regulatory changes. What the switch will mean for the average new car buyer as the decade rolls on.
As we wrote a decade ago when President Obama announced the largest increase in Average Business Fuel Economy (CAFE) in decades, there is a relationship between a vehicle’s CAFE rating and the estimated calculate the fuel economy printed on the vehicle’s window sticker. “Real-world fuel economy is typically 20-30% less than the estimated CAFE requirement,” NHTSA says.
NHTSA rules will require an average fuel efficiency gain of 8% annually for the 2024 and 2025 model years and then 10 percent per year for the 2026 model year. in preamble to the regulations, “The final tiers across the fleet will vary depending on the mix of vehicles the industry makes for sale during those model years.” For example, buyers won’t necessarily see an 8% mpg increase between the 2023 Hyundai Kona and 2024, just that these higher targets will eventually be achieved, meaning in the 2029 model year. automakers “continue to offer compliance solutions for the specified model years of the three model years after the last regulated model year, in recognition of the fact that manufacturers are not following perfect compliance with CAFE standards in each model year,” the agency said.
There’s a lot of language in NHTSA’s 1230-page document on the new fuel economy rules that describes what the agency can and can’t do when it comes to these “compliance solutions.” One sticking point with advocates of higher standards is that the government continues to base economic calculations on a company’s average fleet using a footprint-based methodology. CAFE standards have for decades separated “tourist vans” and “light trucks” into separate categories, but new rules have been introduced for the 2012 model year that put us on a road of based footprint.
The old rules have their own problems. For example, the Chrysler PT Cruiser is considered a light truck, despite sharing the platform with the Dodge Neon and therefore subject to less stringent mpg standards. Because the PT Cruiser easily beats the truck’s mpg claims, that gives Chrysler more breathing room to not make other vehicles in its lineup as fuel efficient as they would auto if the PT Cruiser is considered an automobile.
Today, NHTSA uses a “footprint” approach, which is determined by the four points where the tire hits the ground, or the track width over time the wheelbase. NHTSA makes it clear in its document that it is operating under regulations that “[require] vehicles have different sizes (footprints) for different CO2 targets” and these rules mean the average fuel economy standards each company must achieve based on the footprint found. The NHTSA is required by law to require vehicles to use properties that can be “expressed as a mathematical function” and that the vehicle’s footprint is certainly more mathematical than decided that a running Neon was in fact a truck.
In 2017, the Center for Automotive Research explained the overall benefits of this system. “The footprint model is intended to encourage manufacturers to make all light vehicles, regardless of size, more efficient,” CAR writes. “This is an important difference to the non-attribute-based averaging method used prior to 2012. With the attribute-free averaging method, companies can balance product portfolios between vehicles. Smaller cars are more fuel efficient and larger cars are less fuel efficient.” However, the non-attribute-based averaging method does not necessarily help manufacturers maximize fuel efficiency for larger vehicles. Instead, this approach can focus on saving fuel with smaller, cheaper vehicles — and often with deep discounts. “
Despite some advantages of the footprint-based methodology, NHTSA acknowledges that there is still a problem. Since fuel economy standards for each manufacturer are determined by their last model year production figures, and as NHTSA writes, “in general, larger vehicles (i.e. vehicles with a larger footprint) more) will be subject to a lower mpg target than smaller cars,” where it’s still a boon for automakers building larger vehicles because they don’t have to be as efficient. .
Whether or not the actual number of stickers for new vehicles are subject to these new rules, the cars of the future will be better fuel-efficient as a result of the new rules announced this week, and there Candlestick which means the driver will spend less at the pump. At the announcement ceremony, Transport Minister Pete Buttigieg explain One way the new rules will help motorists.
“[In] “In 2026, today’s model is ’21, standard is 36 miles per gallon,” he said. [which] which means if you fill up four times a month that becomes three times a month on a model year 2026, based on those averages and of course saving a typical US household hundreds of dollars. “
Buttigieg added that the new regulations could be seen as a win for “every driver in the US, but I would note that it’s an especially big win for drivers in rural areas.” where residents travel farther each day and fill up with gas more often.”
There will be a difference in the price of the new car for the same reason. Not surprising, NHTSA estimates of its final rule “recommend a slightly larger MSRP increase for light trucks and a smaller increase for passenger cars.” NHTSA estimates that their updated rules will mean that on average a 2029 car will cost $960 more than the average car today (so expect to see more stories). cars are getting more expensive) but the lifetime return on fuel economy will be $1,80, meaning buyers will save an average of $320 from these more efficient vehicles. NHTSA acknowledged that it could have pushed for more stringent regulations, but said that if it had, the increase in average costs per vehicle could have exceeded $2000. The agency said NHTSA’s compromise figures for the new rules were “maximum practicable”.
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