CNNE
—
What began as a hopeful announcement of a six-month cease-fire with the National Liberation Army (ELN) and other armed groups in Colombiaended in a political entanglement that casts doubt on the armed groups’ desire for peace – and raises questions about future announcements by Colombian President Gustavo Petro regarding the peace process happenning.
The Colombian government’s chief negotiator, Otty Patiño, has since acknowledged that an agreement was not reached bilaterally. On Wednesday, a spokesman for the Colombian government announced that the ceasefire had been suspended.
Analysts agree that it was a mistake to make the announcement without reaching a bilateral agreement and believe that Petro’s government now faces a long way to correct.
Here is a summary of what has happened in recent days regarding the bilateral ceasefire – which has never happened – and what may happen in the future.
President Petro announced a ceasefire on December 31, bringing hope to many areas, especially communities ravaged by violence.
He said that in six months, starting January 1, there will be a ceasefire with the ELN and four other armed groups: la Segunda Marquetalia (Second Marquetalia), el Estado Mayor Central (Supreme Command of the United States). FARC), Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia (Colombian Gaitanista Defense Force) and Autodefensas de la Sierra Nevada (Defense Force of the Sierra Nevada).
“The main objective of the ceasefire will be to prevent humanitarian impact… prevent offensive actions and avoid armed conflicts between law enforcement and illegal organizations,” the statement said. France”.
The announcement was welcomed by many, including United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who in a statement indicated that he “welcomes” the announcement of a bilateral ceasefire as it “provides hope” a new hope of total peace for the Colombian people as the New Year begins. ”
According to Petro, the Organization of American States (OAS), as well as the Catholic Church and the Ombudsman’s Office, will oversee the bilateral ceasefire.
But bilateral agreement did not happen.
Three days later, the ELN said in a statement that there was no bilateral ceasefire agreement with the Colombian government as the Petro announced on December 31.
“The ELN Dialogue Delegation has not discussed with the government of Gustavo Petro any proposal for a bilateral ceasefire, therefore there is no agreement on that yet,” the January 1 statement said. know.
The guerrillas said that “ELN only adheres to what was discussed and agreed upon at the Dialogue Table where we participated,” adding that the announcement was interpreted as “a proposal that will be reviewed in the next cycle.” next” will be made in Mexico.
Reuters reported that the announcement was a complete shock to the public and, following the announcement, the Petro convened a meeting with the ministers of defense, the interior and the high commissioner for peace to analyze the position of the rebel group. up, including about 2,400 warriors.
Colombia’s Interior Minister and government spokesman Alfonso Prada Gil announced at a press conference Wednesday that the executive order to establish a ceasefire with the ELN has been suspended.
A new meeting between the parties is expected at the negotiations between the ELN and the Colombian government that will continue in Mexico
“We are aware of the ELN statement and last night we made the decision to suspend the legal effect of that executive order until the negotiating table is reactivated in the coming days and at that table. , we will make that request of the protocols on behalf of the government, and we hope that the ELN will bring their protocols so that we can reactivate the dialogue,” he said.
Prada Gil invited the ELN to agree to a temporary ceasefire, while the next round of negotiations began in Mexico.
Following the uproar caused by the announcement, the head of the government’s negotiating delegation, Otty Patiño, did not clarify that Petro had made the announcement unilaterally without consulting the guerrillas, but instead thereby “celebrating” the ELN’s decision to “review the terms” that a ceasefire could be implemented.
He also ventured to “interpret” the Petro’s failure announcement as “the first step towards a new understanding and a new future”.
Analysts have agreed that Petro’s declaration of a bilateral ceasefire was a mistake, but some see it as the president’s way of pressuring the guerrillas and trying to advance the peace process. with ELN.
“It is clearly wrong to declare a ceasefire to a number of organizations without agreeing to do so with all of them and also without monitoring protocols. “It’s wrong to commit to the international community on something that hasn’t been agreed upon by the parties, but we’re into it,” political analyst Leon Valencia said on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, retired Army Colonel Luis Alberto Villamarín said the Petro’s bilateral announcement was a counterproductive move.
“He thinks that by making a move like this, he will subdue the ELN. Because the only meaningS the fact that ELN has to put pressure on the negotiating table is their act of terrorism. And if the ELN commits to a bilateral ceasefire, that will make it impossible for them to be strong at the negotiating table,” Villamarín said in an interview on CNN.econclusion.
“The ELN’s only argument is terrorism and Mr. Petro thinks he can take that away from them, tie their hands,” said the retired army colonel. “That was calculated but the ELN responded in kind,” he added.
Petro’s goal is to achieve what he calls “comprehensive peace,” which is also the political goal of his government.
He wants to disarm armed groups and organized crime, and end a decades-long armed conflict that has killed at least 450,000 people and displaced millions.
And with that in mind, the Petro administration takes a two-pronged approach: peace negotiations with the ELN guerillas that have a political agenda, and a legal process with criminal organizations that have no agenda. politics, said political analyst Ariel Avila, who is also a political analyst. Senator for the Green Party.
“This ceasefire covers five organizations, the largest armed group, and therefore, safety can be improved in about 180 autonomous cities… in the country,” Avila said in an interview with Result. CNNE’s commentary. “There will be areas where the relief level will be very low, as there are other areas where these groups (sic) get full relief where the relief will be much larger.”
Experts say that, despite Petro’s mistake to make that announcement without a bilateral agreement, he should still try to reach a similar agreement, since the proposal is already public and well-publicized. Internationally welcomed.
“Gustavo Petro took the bold step of proposing a bilateral ceasefire without discussion with the armed forces and the ELN. Now it is known and widely accepted and supported by the international community. It is appropriate now to urgently agree on it,” said León Valencia.
And if this agreement is reached, it is doubly good, according to Avila, it will lead to the signing of an agreement with the ELN and the implementation of the legal compliance process with the criminal organizations.
He pointed out: “The criminal told the truth and delivered the goods and in return the state offered to reduce the sentence.
