Authoritarian regimes’ tendency to learn from each other is of particular concern when combined with previous threats from Libya. Libya, long a preferred point of departure for refugees and other migrants seeking to reach Europe from the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, is likely to be a destination for many people fleeing hunger, especially in Horn of Africa, where 18 million people are currently food insecure. Since 2019, security researchers have warned about the possibility Russia uses control of Libyan migration routes to terrorize and coerce the EU.
If the number of migrants increased in response to food shortages, Russia will most likely try to use the threat of a new migrant crisis on the southern slopes of Europe coupled with a flurry of misinformation and fear. fear is amplified on the network. A new influx of refugees, and growing fear towards them, may not only distract from the conflict in Ukraine but also draw new attention to the cost of supporting Ukrainian refugees. available in Europe. Combined, they could break the EU’s resolve and disrupt the current unified opposition to the invasion of Ukraine as officials seek to quickly resolve the previous crisis to focus attention. theirs into a new crisis. Russian state media have been very transparent about their intentions to capitalize on the looming crisis, Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of RT, stated on Russian state television that “all our hopes are pinned to famine. “
However, as Ukraine’s experience has demonstrated, the mere existence of large numbers of refugees does not guarantee a crisis. Instead, the public must first be informed about the existential threat, often aided by state-backed disinformation campaigns. But we have the means to interrupt these campaigns.
One of the most effective tools is a technique called prebunking. An extension of work pioneered by social psychologist William McGuire in the 1960s, prebunking – more like the popular strategy of debugging – seeks to limit the spread and effectiveness of misinformation. deviated. Crucially, however, the prebunking feature works to combat these campaigns before individuals encounter false claims. This makes prebunking much more effective, as misinformation can “stick” and be much harder to disprove once it has been accepted.
Prebunking works by presenting a weakened version of the false claims that individuals may encounter — for example, “refugees are not really fleeing conflict, they are seeking interests in other areas of the world. European countries” – followed by a complete rebuttal of the claim. In this case, prebunkers can highlight the ongoing risk to individuals in the conflict zone and the refugees’ real motives for fleeing.
This technique is highly adaptable to media ranging from billboards to pre-roll video ads and has been proven in laboratory conditions to be effective against wide range of the wrong storiesFrom election misinformation to vaccine skepticism.
Proactive protection of the information environment is essential not only to counter Russia’s efforts to disrupt opposition to its attack on Ukraine, but also to ensure the safety of refugees. vulnerable, both those likely to emerge from the famine as well as Ukrainians currently sheltering in Europe. In May, locals told me that rumors had begun to spread about Ukrainian women “stealing” Polish men, and concerns had begun to grow about the economic costs of supporting them. aid for displaced populations — both problems are the cause of Russia’s disinformation campaigns.
For now, however, the most immediate threats are to the refugees, who will be forced to flee famine in the weeks and months ahead, obstacles to their safety that the wars will face. Russia’s disinformation and interference campaigns, and the potential for these fear campaigns to crack, NATO’s unity in safeguarding a future rules-based international order. To reduce this threat, it is important that we act now to combat the threat narratives that will soon emerge.
