The World Cup is a big betting event for European sportsbooks, but it feels like a guessing game for American bookies, especially this year.
According to FIFA, $155 billion has been bet globally on the 2018 World Cup, which takes place in the traditional summer in Russia. The United States men’s national team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup and bets for the tournament at Nevada sportsbooks are average. The American men have returned to the tournament this year, but other factors are dampening bookies’ expectations.
“We are optimistic, but have modest expectations,” Karol Corcoran, general manager of online sportsbook FanDuel, said of the World Cup, which opens November 20 in Qatar.
This is the first World Cup to take place in the fall and right in the thick of a crowded sports month in the US featuring the NFL, NBA, NHL, college football and basketball. The 8-hour time zone difference from Qatar to the eastern US can also hinder betting on the World Cup.
“Football betting in general has increased year after year,” said Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “I would expect the same thing to happen if this were a normal World Cup in the summer. But it’s up against football, the NBA, hockey and college basketball.”
Determining how much has been wagered on past World Cups and how much has been wagered on football in general with American sportsbooks is a challenge. The 2018 World Cup begins just over a month after the US Supreme Court ruled that all states allow sports betting. Only three states – Delaware, Nevada and New Jersey – were active when the 2018 tournament kicked off. More than 30 states may have legal betting markets when this year’s tournament begins.
However, most state regulatory bodies do not monitor individual football betting. Nevada, for example, includes football in an “other” category in its monthly revenue report, with auto racing, golf, hockey and combat among sports other. However, Colorado’s Division of Games keeps track of bets on football. Last November, $11.2 million was bet on football with the Colorado sportsbook, about the same amount as bets on hockey for the month, but less than the NFL, NBA and college football and basketball
John Murray, managing director of SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, said the company’s accounting team was disappointed with his November estimate of how much would be wagered during the World Cup.
“I just told them I don’t know how we’re going to act on the World Cup games at two o’clock in the morning,” Murray said. “And what I really don’t know is how much action will be new and how much of it will be proceeds from what we did with football or basketball.”
However, American bookmakers agree that the US vs UK match, scheduled for November 25, the day after Thanksgiving, will attract significant bets. Murray said it has a chance to be the most-betted football game in the history of the SuperBook, comparable to a bet on an NFL game at prime time.
The United States can be found as long as 120-1 to win the World Cup at FanDuel and patriotic betting seems to be in full force. The USA has attracted twice as many bets to win the tournament than any other team at FanDuel.
